Australia Buying 4-5 U.S. Built Virginia Class Subs

After 18 months, the primary focus of the Australia, United Kingdom and United States (AUKUS) security pact—Australia’s eventual acquisition and operation of nuclear submarines—is finally coming into public view. With a gala public announcement set for Monday summit in San Diego, California, leaks suggest Australia will commit to buy somewhere between 4 and 5 U.S.-built Virginia class submarines, fielding them in the 2030’s, while working with the UK to design, build and field an entirely new export-oriented submarine sometime in the 2040’s.

If the leaks are true, this reasonably paced and likely easily-modified proposal solves a lot of problems—and helps every AUKUS partner eke out some big and much-needed “wins”.

Australia Gets Time To Build Support Facilities:

With a 2030-ish delivery target, the proposed sale—likely aligned with the retirement of Australia’s current submarine fleet—gives Australia ample time to build and staff submarine maintenance and support facilities—something that traditionally plagues Australian submarine acquisition efforts.

The preparatory work is no simple task. The latest “in-production” Virginia class submarines are about 200 feet longer than Australia’s current Collins class boats, and they require the already understaffed Australian Navy generate about 70-80 more crew members per boat.

But this pause also gives Australia an opportunity to work through tough “back-room” regulatory issues like nuclear waste management and restrictive International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) rules—a sea anchor on any U.S. effort to share military technology with other countries.

If pursued with vigor, this early work is a route to some relatively easy early and high-profile AUKUS “wins”. A set of simple collaborative efforts to build maintenance-oriented nuclear-certified dry docks, new submarine tenders, and a sub maintenance facility in Western Australia offers particular chance for Austal, an Australian-headquartered U.S. shipbuilder, to serve as a testbed for defense collaboration—while rapidly getting the U.S. and the UK much-needed forward-based nuclear submarine support facilities near China.

U.S. Can Align Sub Production And Operations

Second, the Virginia class sale offers America a welcome opportunity to maintain high submarine manufacturing rates while rebalancing a decayed submarine maintenance industrial base. Right now, in the U.S., a production and operations mismatch threatens the very viability of the U.S. Navy’s submarine fleet.

With America’s prolific sub-builders outpacing the U.S. Navy’s ability to operate the growing U.S, submarine force, deal to sell four Virginia class subs takes the pressure off by keeping U.S. production lines healthy. As I wrote before, “as submarine builders gradually deliver a few subs to Australia, the Pentagon can use the time to force the resistant U.S. Navy into building out of some unexciting, long-divested/under-funded submarine maintenance capabilities that both the U.S. and Australia need. “

A Perfect Tie-In With Hypersonic Missile Tech:

And, finally, the Virginia class sale opens the door to the Australian acquisition of modern, long-range strike weaponry.

While details on the submarine purchasing agreement have yet to be disclosed, the latest production model, the “Block V” Virginia class variant, seems to be the logical place for the U.S. to find some trade space. A big, flexible submarine—83 feet longer than earlier Virginia class subs, the expanded platform has the capability to carry everything from commandos to hypersonic missiles—another enormous AUKUS priority.

With the foundation for a “Pacific NATO” coming into focus, all eyes turn to China, which is unlikely to respond well to the news of Australia’s acquisition of several advanced military platforms.