AUD/USD lacks firm intraday direction, consolidates in a range just below mid-0.6400s

• AUD/USD seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses on the first day of a new week.
• A positive risk tone undermines the safe-haven USD and lends support to the Aussie.
• The upside remains capped as traders keenly await the crucial FOMC policy meeting.

The AUD/USD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Monday and remains confined in a narrow trading band during the Asian session. Spot prices currently hover just below mid-0.6400s and remain well within the striking distance of a nearly two-week high touched on Friday.

Against the backdrop of the latest optimism over more stimulus from China, a generally positive tone around the US equity futures keeps the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) on the defensive and acts as a tailwind for the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar (AUD). The USD downtick could further be attributed to some repositioning trade ahead of the highly-anticipated FOMC monetary policy meeting starting on Tuesday, which, in turn, is seen as another factor lending some support to the AUD/USD pair.

The US central bank is scheduled to announce its decision on Wednesday and is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. The markets, however, are still pricing in the possibility of one more 25 bps lift-off in November or December. Hence, the focus will be on the accompanying policy statement. This, along with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the post-meeting presser, will be scrutinized for cues about the Fed’s future rate-hike path, which will influence the near-term USD price dynamics.

In the meantime, traders might refrain from placing aggressive bearish bets around the buck and positioning for any meaningful corrective decline from over a six-month peak touched last week. Apart from this, speculations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might have already ended its rate-hiking cycle might further contribute to keeping a lid on the AUD/USD pair. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying in order to confirm that spot prices have bottomed out.

There isn’t any relevant market-moving economic data due for release on Monday, leaving the AUD/USD pair at the mercy of the USD price dynamics. Traders will further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities. The aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop, meanwhile, warrants some caution for aggressive traders heading into this week’s key central bank event risk.

Technical levels to watch