AUD/USD climbs into a four-month high, bulls aim for 0.6800

• AUD/USD hit a four-month high in early Thursday on Australian data beats.
• Broad-market risk rally fueled by Fed rate cut expectations extends into a second day.
• Australian PMI figures due early Friday, US PMIs to close out the trading week.

The AUD/USD tapped a four-month high of 0.6728 in early Thursday trading, with the Aussie (AUD) extending a Fed-fueled risk rally after Australian labor figures beat the street, and the US Dollar (USD) tumbles across the broader FX market.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) pivoted on its monetary policy outlook on Wednesday, tabling interest rate cut discussions for the first time in years. Fed policymakers currently expect 75 basis points in interest rate cuts through the end of 2024. 

The US Dollar promptly deflated on Fed headlines, and the Aussie extended near-term gains after an unexpected bump in Australian Employment Change figures for November, adding 61.5K jobs versus the expected 11K. October previously added 42.7K new jobs (revised down steeply from 55K).

Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures will wrap up the trading week for both Australia and the US.

Australia’s Judo Bank Preliminary PMI figures for December will print early in the Friday trading session. The Australian economy has struggled of late, and Aussie bidders will be hoping for an improvement in the headline read. The Australian Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI last printed at 47.7 in November, with the Services PMI last printing a flat 46.0.

US PMI figures due later on Friday are expected to show a slight step back, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI seen declining from 49.4 to 49.3, and the Services PMI slipping backto 50.6 from 50.8.

AUD/USD Technical Outlook

Despite Wednesday’s hard rally above the 0.6700 handle, the Aussie is running the risk of getting hung up in a near-term congestion zone as the AUD struggles to develop an extension in bullish momentum following the broader market’s US Dollar rebalance.

0.6720 is hardening into a near-term ceiling for intraday candles, and the struggle for Aussie bulls will be to mount a fresh attack and muscle the AUD/USD over the 0.6730 level to take a fresh run at the 0.6800 handle.

Daily candlesticks have the AUD/USD extending further into chart territory above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and December’s early swing highs into 0.6670 could flip into technical support in the near-term.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Technical Levels

(This story was corrected on December 14 at 18:15 GMT to say that the US PMI release on Friday is expected to decline to 49.3, not 94.3.)