Attempt to slow pace of depreciation – OCBC

For the second day in a row, CNY fix came in much stronger than expected. USD/CNH was last at 7.2596, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.  

Bullish momentum on daily chart

“Policymakers attempt to convey a message that recent spot USD/CNH move is close to testing policymakers’ threshold of tolerance for CNH weakness.

“On one hand, the strong fix may serve as a deterrence against further weakening in RMB but on the other, trump trade momentum may mean that USD/CNH remains better bid on dips. Given a strong USD trend, policymakers can only slow pace of RMB depreciation at best.”

“For USD/CNH to reverse trend, the USD needs to ease. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is near overbought conditions. Resistance at 7.2750 levels. Support at 7.22, 7.20 (200 DMA).”