Athletics’ Frankie Montas Showing Much Improved Slider In Early Starts

In recent weeks in this space, I’ve rolled out my annual MLB Best Pitches series. Click to see the pitch-specific articles on changeups, curveballs, cutters/splitters, four-seam fastballs, sinkers and sliders. They were then combined to create 2021 Pitcher Grade-Point Averages. Now, we’re going to dig a little deeper into some surprising 2021 GPAs, and incorporate 2022 results to make some observations about the future for selected pitchers.

It might have been a little surprising to see Frankie Montas in the 2nd quartile of MLB starters in my Grade-Point Average article last week. He finished 6th in the 2021 AL Cy Young Award voting, well ahead of the likes of Lucas Giolito, who finished well of Montas in my “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average metric, my system of ranking pitcher contributions. In fact, Montas finished nowhere near the top in that measure, with 6.9 TPRAA. (Gerrit Cole led the AL with 25.2.) He had exceptionally good fortune on all batted ball types, with materially better actual than projected results on fly balls (90 Unadjusted vs. 112 Adjusted Contact Score) and liners (87 vs. 104). Overall, Montas posted a 93 Unadjusted vs. 109 Adjusted Contact Score. His “Tru” ERA- of 93 was well above his matching mainstream ERA- and FIP- marks of 81.

Montas’ 2021 3.19 pitching Grade Point Average runs pretty much parallel with his TPRAA, and is out of synch with the opinions of Cy Young voters. He received a “B+” grade for his sinker and a “B” for his four-seamer, which he threw 29.2% and 29.0% of the time, respectively. His best and worst pitches were his “A+” splitter and his “D+” slider, which he threw 22.4% and 19.4% of the time.

His splitter was one of the best pitches in the majors last season, with an exceptional 25.8% swing-and-miss rate and a pitch-specific Adjusted Contact Score of 78. That was the same exact contact management mark as Kevin Gausman’s splitter, and Montas’ whiff rate was a percentage point higher – that’s a dominant pitch for sure. The slider was a mess any way you slice it – its 134 Adjusted Contact Score was worst among qualifiers, and its 12.3% pitch-specific whiff rate was over a full standard deviation below average as well.

Obviously, the A’s were in fire sale mode as this season got underway, moving Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Sean Manaea during spring training, leaving Montas as the last star standing. With his reputation outstripping his true talent level – at least in my eyes – the A’s were in position to reap a bountiful return in trade. He’s been rumored to be on the move a couple of times, with the White Sox rumored to be a primary suitor.

As the 2022 season has gotten underway, Montas’ mainstream numbers are tracking pretty closely to his 2021 level. Last year, both his ERA and FIP (per Baseball Reference) were 3.37. This year, his ERA is 3.44, his FIP is 3.29. His K/BB ratios are very comparable. But how do his early-season pitch grades look? While I look at “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average as a pure measurement of results, the pitch grades to an extent measure inputs, and are scouting metrics that can give you an idea of where a pitcher is headed.

Broadly, there are highs and lows on Montas’ early season report card. His velocity is modestly down across his entire repertoire. His pitch mix has changed quite a bit, with his splitter usage sharply up (at the expense of his sinker) and his slider usage a bit more modestly up (at the expense of his four-seamer). Throwing one’s best pitch would seem to be a no-brainer, and though there would seem to be an upper limit as to how often one should throw a splitter, Montas is still shy of a 30% usage rate for a pitch Gausman throws 35%+ of the time.

Effectiveness of said pitches is obviously a key, however, and for Montas to take the next step – or to, in my opinion, actually take the next step that the mainstream believes he already took in 2021 – he needed to 1) improve his slider to at least an average offering, and 2) do what the great ones do and develop at least one “A” grade fastball.

Well, Montas appears to be accomplishing the first task, but not the second one. It’s a really small sample, but he has made great strides with the slider to date. It’s an “A” pitch by a razor’s edge margin, with a greatly improved whiff rate (from 12.3% to 19.6%) and very promising contact management traits. Fully half of the 10 batted balls allowed on his sliders thus far have been pop ups, keying an early-season pitch-specific 76 Adjusted Contact Score. The slider has complemented a still-great splitter, which is at the “A+” level again, with an exceptional 48 Adjusted Contact Score compensating for a big whiff rate drop (from 25.8% to 15.0%).

About those fastballs, however……both have dropped a half-grade in the early going. The four-seamer’s whiff rate has been essentially flat (11.3% in 2021, 11.4% in 2022), while its already bad Adjusted Contact Score (134 in 2021) has gotten worse (163 in 2022), dropping its pitch grade from “B” to “C+”. It’s basically the same story with the sinker, with a flat whiff rate (8.0% in 2021, 7.7% in 2022) and slight contact management worsening (97 Adjusted Contact Score in 2021, 105 in 2022), with its grade dropping from “B+” in 2021 to “B” thus far in 2022.

So what have we got? I’m now comfortable in saying that Frankie Montas is an upper-tier AL starter, something I wasn’t quite ready to say in 2021. I still don’t quite see him in the elite tier, the group from which Cy Young winners hail. The Gerrit Coles, the Justin Verlanders, the Lucas Giolitos, the Lance Lynns…., even the Nathan Eovaldis – have the fastballs that separate them from the pack. For Montas to take that pivotal last step, he’s going to need to miss more bats and even more importantly begin to control the damage he yields with his four-seam fastball.