At The Current Rate, It Would Take Russia Centuries To Capture Ukraine

Russian forces managed to capture around 68 square miles of Ukraine in April. But it cost them 4,800 vehicles and more than 36,600 dead and wounded troops, according to one statistician who collects data mostly from official Ukrainian sources including the general staff in Kyiv.

In the same month, Ukrainian losses were “minimal,” concluded analyst Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting in Poland.

Ukraine sprawls across 233,000 square miles, 19% of which is under Russian occupation. At the current rates of advance and loss, the Russians would capture the rest of Ukraine in the year 2256 at the cost of 101 million casualties. The current population of Russia is 144 million.

Incredibly, staggering losses in people and equipment haven’t yet crippled the Russian military in Ukraine. The Kremlin is equipping its forces with thousands of civilian vehicles, including scooters, compact cars and even at least one bus.

Meanwhile, it’s recruiting 30,000 troops per month, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, told U.S. lawmakers on April 3. Since many of the wounded eventually return to the front line, the Russian armed forces recruit more people every month than they lose.

As a result, Cavoli said, the Russian force in Ukraine is actually growing. It now numbers no fewer than 600,000 troops, “the highest level over the course of the war and almost double the size of the initial invasion force” in February 2022, Cavoli said.

How the Kremlin has managed to sustain and even expand its recruitment effort comes down to two things: money and mood. Record enlistments are “driven by high sign-on bonuses and speculation that the war will soon be over,” explained Janis Kluge, deputy head of the Eastern Europe and Eurasia Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

Tightrope

Whether the money and good vibes are sustainable is an open question. “All told, Russia’s defense budget will account for 40% of all government expenditures which is at its highest level since the Cold War,” Cavoli said. By comparison, the United States spends just 13% of its federal budget on the military.

The spending has buoyed Russians’ attitude toward the war, even as total casualties exceeded 800,000 earlier this year. “As a direct result of its defense spending, Russian investments in its industrial base have reduced national unemployment to 2.4%,” Cavoli said. “The Russian economy is on a war footing and will remain so for the foreseeable future.”

But a war footing isn’t always very efficient. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has vowed to maintain the elevated military spending even as plummeting oil prices and the damage from Ukrainian drone attacks squeeze revenue from energy exports, cutting economic growth in Russia by more than half compared to a year ago.

To prolong the wartime spending spree, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin raised personal and corporate taxes last year. “Russia’s leadership is not only prepared to increase the tax burden on Russians but is also shifting its economic development priorities,” explained Alexander Kolyandr, an analyst with the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, D.C. Obviously, war industries are the priority.

Losing a lot to gain very little in Ukraine and sustaining the costly effort through massive spending, Russian leaders are walking an economic and political tightrope.

But the danger hasn’t dissuaded them. According to Cavoli, Putin and his ministers and generals are committed to a long war—one that could widen beyond Ukraine. “The Russian regime has refashioned its military, economic and social structures to sustain what it describes as a long-term confrontation with the West—systemic changes that illustrate Russia’s intention to confront us into the foreseeable future,” Cavoli warned.