As ‘Dune’ Passes $400 Million, Can ‘Dune Part Two’ Rewrite Box Office History?

Warner Bros. and Legendary have made it official, namely that Denis Villeneuve’s $165 million Dune has passed $400 million at the global box office. This comes, ironically enough, on the third anniversary of the domestic opening day of Alita: Battle Angel. Robert Rodriguez and James Cameron’s mange adaptation slightly overperformed three years ago, earning $85 million domestic, $113 million in China and $405 million on a $170 million budget. We have yet to get a greenlight for an Alita sequel. We frankly probably never will unless Avatar 2 makes another $3 billion, and Cameron asks for an Alita 2 as a treat. Yet, amusingly enough, we’ve already got Dune part Two on the way due in theaters October 20, 2023. I get it (you want a complete two-part adaptation of the first novel for ongoing revenue opportunities), but it is odd. 

The Golden Compass was a disaster with $375 million in 2007 on a $170 million budget, while Edge of Tomorrow and Mad Max: Fury Road weren’t exactly super hits with over/under $375 million worldwide on $155-$175 million budgets. Dune earned $109 million domestic, by far the biggest grossing of this year’s Best Picture nominees but also on par (sans inflation) with the $107 million cume of the franchise-killing Batman & Robin (from a $43 million debut weekend) 25 years ago. David Yates’ The Legend of Tarzan slightly overperformed with $126 million domestic and $353 million in summer 2016, but it was one-and-done partially due to the $180 million budget. Pacific Rim earned $411 million in 2013 (including $112 million in China and $102 million domestic) but the always-doomed sequel earned $270 million on a $150 million budget in 2018. 

There are only a handful of movies that earned just over $100 million domestic and just over $400 million worldwide. Just five, Alita: Battle Angel, Ice Age: Collision Course ($64 million/$404 million), Warcraft ($47 million/$440 million including $220 million in China), The Mummy ($81 million/$81 million/$405 million) and Terminator: Genisys ($90 million/$113 million/$440 million) topped $400 million without passing $100 million domestic. Those five were all in the last five years and none spawned a sequel. Most of the “just barely over $100 million domestic and $400 million worldwide” grossers fared likewise. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treder and The Mummy: The Curse of the Dragon Emperor ended their respective franchises at part three, while Warcraft and The Mummy, well, you know. Moreover, Pacific Rim, Prometheus and Kingsman: The Golden Circle spawned flop sequels. 

There is a case to be made that piracy was an issue, the film didn’t drop dead overseas after the film’s October 22 domestic release (which of course coincided with its HBO Max launch). It opened with $40 million in North America and ended the weekend with $223 million worldwide. It would almost double its global total over the next 3.5 months, meaning that those who wanted to see it theatrically did so even after A) the HBO Max option existed and B) pristine HD copies popped up on various pirate/torrent sites instantly because of the streaming availability. Regardless, if Dune did lose out due to Covid and Project Popcorn, we should see an upswing for Dune part Two, both in terms of “wanted to see Dune theatrically” moviegoers and folks who discovered it at home. 

This is not to say that Dune part Two is theatrically doomed. It might be an exception to the rule. First, as noted many times, well-received and well-reviewed “part one of two” franchise flicks tend to spawn even more successful “part two of two” installments. Avengers: Endgame, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II and The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part II all outgrossed their respective “part 1” chapters. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End stayed the course ($964 million from $1.066 billion). The Matrix Revolutions ($427 million from Matrix Reloaded’s $742 million), Back to the Future part III ($245 million from $332 million) and The Hunger Games: Mockingjay part II ($658 million from $755 million) dipped, but Dune has more positive momentum. I don’t recall Matrix 2 or Hunger Games 3 getting a Best Picture nomination. 

Second, Covid-specific variables and the whole “available on HBO Max for the first month alongside its theatrical release” factor played a role. No, I don’t think the Timothee Chalamet-led sci-fi action drama would have earned significantly more in North America sans HBO Max. The films that succeeded on HBO Max (Godzilla Vs. Kong, The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, etc.) were, give or take budget were the same ones that flourished at the box office. Of course, the over/under $160 million totals of Space Jam: A New Legacy, The Matrix Resurrections and The Suicide Squad were “whiffs” because of the $150-$190 million budgets. But those films were always commercial question marks, which is part of what makes the ongoing Warner Bros./Village Roadshow litigation so tricky. I honestly don’t think HBO Max was a major factor.  

Third, whether audiences adore Dune as much as critics, and an A- from Cinemascore for a comparatively obtuse sci-fi blockbuster implies they did, paying theatergoers seemingly liked it well enough. A 2.7 weekend-to-final multiplier is okay, while some who would have checked it out in weekend three or seen it again in weekend four caught it on HBO Max either due to convenience or safety concerns. The film will have the same core cast (minus the casualties but with an expanded role for Zendaya) and a big-scale action finale. Presuming reviews are good and nothing changes in the theatrical landscape, Dune part Two will enter theaters as an anticipated sequel to a well-liked and well-respected predecessor. While it didn’t make money in raw theatrical (2.5 times $165 million is $413 million), it did okay on a Covid curve. 

The next Dune flick, presuming it happens as intended and opens on schedule, will face two competing box office precedents. On one hand, well-received “part one of one” flicks tend to spawn overperforming “part two of two” sequels. However, Dune part Two will only be the “finale” of the first book versus an “end of an era” series finale. Moreover, the list of big-budget movies that barely crawled past $100 million domestic and barely crawled past $400 million worldwide and then became viable franchises is arguably non-existent. The closest exception that comes to mind is… wait a minute… Warner Bros. and Legendary’s Godzilla: King of the Monsters ($110 million/$390 million in 2019) spawning Godzilla Vs. Kong ($100 million/$468 million in 2021). I guess Dune Part Two is going to earn $480 million worldwide.