As Apple Hits $3 Trillion, UBS Warns Over iPhone Sales

In a research note, UBS analyst David Vogt noted that “sell through” of Apple iPhones in May fell 2% from a year earlier, for the eighth consecutive monthly decline. Citing data from the market research firm Counterpoint, Vogt reported that May sell-through was 14.5 million units, the lowest number since August.

He thinks sell-in for the June quarter—the number of units Apple ships to retailers and distributors—is tracking to come in at 44-45 million units, which he noted would be below the Street consensus call for 46 million.

Vogt noted that the issue isn’t just the iPhone. Global smartphone demand is weak overall, with sell-through in May declining 8% from a year earlier, the 23rd consecutive monthly decline. The 87.4 million smartphones sold globally in May was the lowest number since May 2020, in the middle of the Covid pandemic, he said.

Sell-through for iPhones was particularly weak in the U.S and Europe, with respective declines of 12% and 13%, he said.

Apple declined to comment on the report. 

Vogt turned cautious on Apple a few weeks ago, reducing his rating on the stock to Neutral from Buy. In his latest note, he maintained that rating and his target of $190 for the price.

In reporting Apple’s March quarter results, CFO Lucca Maestri said that the company expected June quarter revenue performance to be similar to the 3% year-over-year drop in the March quarter. He noted that the figure in the year-earlier quarter was boosted by the launch of a new version of the iPhone SE. The Wall Street consensus calls for iPhone sales in the quarter of $40.1 billion, down 1.5% from a year ago.

Amid a broad market rally, with the

Nasdaq Composite

up 1.3%, Apple ended the day 2.3% higher, at $193.97. The market cap was $3.05 trillion.

Write to Eric J. Savitz at [email protected]