Aryna Sabalenka Is No. 1 By A Big Margin, But Needs the U.S. Open

MASON, OHIO – AUGUST 15: Aryna Sabalenka in action against Elena Rybakina of Kazakhstan in the quarter-final on Day 9 of the Cincinnati Open at Lindner Family Tennis Center on August 15, 2025 in Mason, Ohio (Photo by Robert Prange/Getty Images)

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When Aryna Sabalenka beat Jessica Pegula in the 2024 U.S. Open final, she was on top of the world in more ways than one. “I don’t know how to describe that feeling. You’re crying, you’re laughing, you’re just, you know, you feel all these emotions at the same time,” she said post-match. As Elena Rybakina dismantled Sabalenka’s game in the Cincinnati Open quarterfinals on Friday, the mood music was muted before her Flushing Meadows return.

Defending champion Sabalenka was very much at the mercy of an improved Rybakina. The headlines centered around the return of controversial coach Stefano Vukov to the circuit, helpfully distracting from talk over whether the World No. 1 will end the year without a major tick on her 2025 CV.

When the Belarusian won in New York against Pegula, it was her third Grand Slam victory in four finals. The 27-year-old had to suffer to finally get her hands on the Venus Rosewater Dish. There were agonizing semifinal defeats in 2021 and 2022, and then devastation after being a set up on Coco Gauff in the 2024 final. Her game disintegrated as did her racket.

Sabalenka kept cool, calm and composed against Pegula and Qinwen Zheng at Melbourne, refusing to be owned by a difficult history. This year, she has struggled at the business end of the majors, losing on the last day at both the Australian and French Open, while Amanda Anisimova shocked her in the Wimbledon semifinals.

The three-time major champion was fighting herself at SW19, trying to keep emotions in check that had led to some poor decision-making during and after the Melbourne and Paris finals. There was a chat during Wimbledon with Novak Djokovic about how to handle mental energy and approach big finals. After succumbing to a reborn Madison Keys in the first major of the year, she smashed her racket again and walked off court to try and gain some equanimity of mind. It wasn’t a good look.

The Minsk-born player had to belatedly apologize for her “completely unprofessional” remarks at Roland Garros, having initially claimed that Gauff had only won the final because of her mistakes. That emotional tumble dryer needs a better filter sometimes.

The more frustrating trend is that Sabalenka is the first player since Serena Williams in 2015 to top 12,000 WTA ranking points in a season. She’s lapped her pursuers. If the majors are the real deal, the true touchstone for a great season, then the three titles so far won’t be of much comfort. Williams won three big ones in 2015.

Iga Swiatek is flying now and has never lost on finals day in Paris, New York and now Wimbledon. Her Eastern European rival doesn’t quite possess the same clinical cojones.

Sabelenka’s serve has been central to her tennis happiness, or lack of it, in the past. In 2022, she resorted to underarm in Adelaide after serving 21 double faults in one match, even working with a biomechanics expert to weld it into a weapon rather than a tale of woe.

While her state of play and mind hasn’t collapsed to anywhere near that level, there’s a clear kink in the overall Sabalenka armory. Her record of 50-10 isn’t that different to 2024. Her problem is that she’s lost three huge matches in a row at the Slams when clear favorite in at least two of them. She’s reached at least the semifinals in 12 of her 15 big four outings since mid 2021. Converting that to more dominance on the second Sunday is the key.

A closer look reveals a drop-off on serve and the knock-on effect that has on her temperance. She lost her serve nine times against Gauff on Philippe Chatrier in treacherous wind, committing 70 unforced errors. Her “hate” relationship with Wimbledon continues. Even before the defeat to Anisimova, she was struggling to survive against Laura Siegemund. Sabalenka only won eight of her service games against both the German and the American.

Sabalenka’s aggressive game has always been prone to a high error count. That’s a given. Controlling the controllables, and stopping the urge to “go crazy” when things begin to get difficult is now more essential than ever. Beating Gauff on her own patch will need a hard soul and mindset.

“There’s not going to be big wins without really tough losses,” Sabalenka said after winning her second major. She’s not afraid of losing. That tiger spirit just has to be unleashed for tennis reasons rather than through meltdowns.