Are Warren Buffett’s Investment Aides Beating the Stock Market?

 Combs and Weschler oversee about 10% of the portfolio, or $34 billion at the start of 2022. Buffett, 92, runs the other 90% and oversees the entire company as Berkshire’s longtime CEO.

Combs, 51, and Weschler, 61, are expected to take over the entire equity portfolio in the post-Buffett era. Combs came to Berkshire in 2010 and Weschler a year later. Both are former investment managers

While it’s not known which stocks in the portfolio are managed by Combs and Weschler, it’s generally assumed that the bulk of Berkshire’s smaller equity holdings of under $4 billion are run by Combs and Weschler. Both have considerable leeway to make investment decisions with Buffett saying that he sometimes learns of their moves after they’ve been made.

Buffett likes to focus on positions that can move the needle at Berkshire, which has a market value of $670 billion. That generally means holdings that are at least 1% of Berkshire’s market cap.

Barron’s looked at 16 of Berkshire’s smaller holdings totaling about $25 billion based on Berkshire’s quarterly filing as of Sept. 30. Many are having a rocky 2022, including

Amazon.com

(AMZN),

Snowflake

(SNOW),

Charter Communications

(CHTR),

Davita

(DVA),

General Motors

(

GM

) and

Celanese

(CE). These five stocks were off 35% or more year to date earlier this week.

The 16 stocks were down an average of 25.9% against a 19.8% drop for the

S&P 500
.
Stronger performers are

Kroger

(KR) and

McKesson

(

MCK

).

Visa

and

Mastercard

also have outperformed the stock market this year and are big winners over the past decade. It’s a good bet that they’re held by Combs or Weschler, since Buffett has long been enamored of rival American Express (

AXP

).

Berkshire’s biggest holdings are largely or entirely Buffett’s including

Apple

(

AAPL

),

Coca-Cola

(KO),

Bank of America

(BAC),

American Express

(AXP), and

Chevron

(CVX).

Berkshire did not respond to a request for comment.

While they are expected to play an important role at Berkshire when Buffett leaves the scene, the performance of their equity holdings is largely a mystery. Buffett has said little about it-—or his own performance.

He did tell CNBC in 2019: “Overall, they are a tiny bit behind the S&P, each, by almost the same margin.” Buffett added that they had done better than he had, although that was before Apple shares tripled. Apple is Berkshire’s largest equity holding and accounts for about 40% of the portfolio.

Given that Combs and Weschler are likely to play a key role at Berkshire in the post-Buffett era, it might be good for shareholders to know how well they are doing. If they’re trailing the S&P 500 over the past one, five and 10 years, an argument can be made that Berkshire ought to consider indexing more of its portfolio and do less stock picking when Buffett leaves the scene.

Looking at some of the smaller holdings, Davita is closely associated with Weschler, who owns over two million shares personally according to a regulatory filing in August. Berkshire holds 40% of the provider of kidney dialysis services. Davita shares were down 37% this year to a recent $70 and are little changed since 2015.

Snowflake, the formerly high-flying software stock, is an unlikely Buffett holding since software isn’t in his circle of competence. Buffett also has a value bent and software valuations are high. Snowflake, at a recent $141, was off 58% this year and not much above its 2020 IPO price of $120, which is what Berkshire paid for its stake.

Amazon.com probably isn’t a Buffett holding given its lofty valuation. The Berkshire stake is worth about $1 billion. If Buffett liked it, Amazon likely would be a much larger holding.

Buffett hasn’t been a fan of the auto industry, viewing it as too competitive and capital intensive. That makes GM a likely Combs or Weschler holding.

Kroger is held by one of the two. Buffett said a few years ago that it was owned by one of them. Buffett said he wasn’t crazy about the competitive and low-margin grocery business.

Combs and Weschler do more than just run money. Combs has headed Geico, Berkshire’s auto insurance business, for the past three years. Both advise on acquisitions.

In the CNBC interview in 2019, Buffett said: “The first few years,…they got well ahead of the index and they got paid.” He added that their pay hinges on performance. “It came in thirds. So it could be clawed back, two-thirds of it, if they missed the second year and so on.”

Write to Andrew Bary at [email protected]