Are The Cleveland Guardians Over-Achieving Or Really This Good?

Who are these guys, and how can the Cleveland Guardians only be one game out of first place? Even some Guardians fans are wondering about that. Enjoying, but wondering.

In Los Angeles over the weekend, the Guardians, with a payroll almost $200 million below the Dodgers, won two of three games from L.A., despite the fact that Cleveland’s only position player star, Jose Ramirez, sat out two of the three games with a bruised thumb.

The Guardians, who at the start of the season were nobody’s idea of a playoff team, have the fourth-best run differential (+35) in the American League, which projects to a 90-win season.

This despite the fact that all of Cleveland’s outfielders combined have hit fewer home runs (9) than Aaron Judge hit in the month of May (12). Offensively, the Guardians are middle of the pack in several important categories, such as batting average (6^th), on-base percentage (7^th), slugging (8^th), OPS (7), and home runs (12^th).

What Cleveland does really well is put the ball in play. The Guardians have struck out almost 60 fewer times than any other American League team. Ramirez leads the league with 11.3 at bats per strikeout, although his teammate, rookie outfielder Steven Kwan, would be leading the league (12.3 at bats per strikeout) if he had enough plate appearances.

Monday was an off day for the Guardians, who are 5-1 in the first two legs of a nine-game road trip to Colorado, Los Angeles and Minnesota. This is part of a bigger streak, which began on May 30, when Cleveland was spinning its wheels, with a record of 19-24.

Since then, however, their record is 15-4, and they’ve outscored their opponents 90-65. They’ve done it with a combination of timely hitting and lights-out pitching. The Guardians have held their opponents to three or fewer runs in 13 of the 19 games. That’s pushed their record from 19-24 to 34-28, and into second place in the AL Central, one game behind first-place Minnesota.

The Guardians will conclude their extended trip with a three-game series against the AL Central-leading Twins starting Tuesday night.

During their current 15-4 run, Cleveland’s pitching, especially the bullpen, has dominated the opposition. Since May 30, the start of the 15-4 streak, closer Emmanuel Clase and setup man Eli Morgan have made a combined 21 appearances, pitched 24 1/3 scoreless innings, with 30 strikeouts and three walks, while holding opposing batters to a combined batting average of .138.

Cleveland’s other three bullpen stalwarts during the streak have been Bryan Shaw, Anthony Gose, and Sam Hentges. Since May 30, those three, plus Clase and Morgan, in a combined 42 appearances, have posted a 0.84 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .156 batting average.

The Guardians starting pitchers have been almost as good as the relievers. Ace Shane Bieber is 1-0 with a 2.59 ERA, 33 strikeouts and four walks in his four starts during the streak. Cal Quantrill, in his four starts, is 3-1 with 16 strikeouts and four walks. Triston McKenzie has started three games, has a 3.79 ERA, 16 strikeouts and six walks, and has held opposing hitters to a .206 average.

Number four starter Zach Plesac, in four starts is 1-0 with a 2.63 ERA, with 16 strikeouts and two walks. Opposing batters have hit .237 against him.

Offensively, Cleveland’s surge has been the Jose Ramirez Show. During the 15-4 run perennial MVP candidate Ramirez is hitting .339, with a .419 on-base percentage, .662 slugging percentage, and a 1.080 OPS. In the 17 games he’s played during the streak he has hit nine doubles, four home runs, and driven in 14 runs.

Kwan has hit .327 with a .379 on-base percentage during the streak. Shortstop Amed Rosario has slashed .339/.419/.662 in the 19 games. Cleveland’s best hitter after Ramirez has been second baseman Andres Gimenez, who has hit .340 with a .417 on-base percentage and .566 slugging percentage since May 30.

Rookie outfielder Oscar Gonzalez was called up from Triple-A Columbus to replace slumping slugger Franmil Reyes, who after hitting 30 home runs last year has been mired in a season long slump in which he has hit just three home runs in 133 at bats before being placed on the injured list with a hamstring strain. Reyes could be activated sometime this week, and Cleveland could use his bat as the Guardians’ schedule is about to get much more difficult.

Starting Tuesday in Minnesota, the Guardians’ next 14 games will be against the Twins, Red Sox, and the Yankees.

That run of games will take the Guardians to the Fourth of July. It will also reveal whether Cleveland’s current streak, in which they have won 15 of 19 games, was the product of an emerging contender for the postseason, or merely a reflection of a cream puff schedule in which the Guardians, in the span of 16 consecutive games, played four last place teams (Kansas City, Baltimore, Oakland, and Colorado), plus Texas.