Are crude oil markets fairly valued? – TDS

Clearly, the market has now nearly priced out the entire rise in supply risk premia associated with the conflict in the Middle East. Traders have concluded that this chapter of the conflict has ended, but at the very least, this geopolitical equilibrium is fragile. The adage ‘show me the lost barrels’ continues to win out on a more cautious approach, particularly as the market’s focus shifts to the OPEC’s upcoming decision which could potentially bring back unwanted barrels to market, TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

OPEC’s upcoming decision can bring back unwanted barrels

“Our return decomposition framework suggests that recent reports suggesting the group is considering a further delay to their planned production hikes have supported prices over the last session, but kicking the can may no longer be sufficient to bolster prices and may instead only help crude prices find a floor.”

“In turn, barring a further escalation in the conflict, the onus remains on the demand-side of the equation to sustainably lift prices from their current levels. Nascent signs of reflationary tailwinds in the cross-section of commodities prices have provided a cross-current, but the magnitude of these trends remains to be seen.”

“In the near-term, our simulations of future prices suggest that future CTA flow is fairly distributed, such that potential flows are no longer asymmetric. Overall, this set-up does not point to a mispricing of risks worth engaging in without a geopolitical edge.”