Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom marks end of era for DC

Stick a trident in it.

“Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” opens Friday, marking the final installment in Warner Bros. Discovery’s DC Extended Universe film franchise and likely Jason Momoa’s final turn as the titular hero.

The newly minted heads of DC Studios, James Gunn and Peter Safran, are set to reboot of the franchise starting in 2025 with “Superman: Legacy.” At present, Aquaman isn’t front and center character in the nearly dozen film and TV projects unveiled during Gunn and Safran’s slate announcement in January.

Prior to Momoa’s rugged and snappy performances as the character, Aquaman was long the butt of jokes among comic book fans and Hollywood, making for a memorable extended gag on the HBO showbiz comedy “Entourage.” But the former “Game of Thrones” star made the character cool.

Nonetheless, “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” is a film released in limbo, with everything and nothing riding on its success. If it flops, it can be relegated to a bygone era of DC storytelling. If it becomes a bona fide blockbuster, it’s a final feather in the cap of a beleaguered decade of superhero storytelling.

Safran is hopeful that audiences will show up to theaters to support Momoa, and he left the door open to the star perhaps returning.

“If it’s the end of the journey, fine. If it goes on, that’s also fine,” he told attendees Tuesday at an IWC Schaffhausen event celebrating the collaboration between the watchmaker and the studio.

“Jason will always have a home at DC and Warner Brothers,” added Safran, a producer on both “Aquaman” movies. “I really hope that people will come out and support his potentially last stand as Aquaman.”

Momoa, for his part, has said publicly that he’s hopeful there is space for him to return to the character in the future. But he admitted that “it’s not looking too good.”

The film is expected to open between $32 million and $42 million at the domestic box office, which would be around half of what the first “Aquaman” film generated during its debut in 2018. Similarly, the long-term domestic box office forecast is that it will reach $105 million to $168 million before the end of its run, half of what the original tallied five years ago.

It should be noted that the review embargo for “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” doesn’t lift until Thursday, leaving little time for audiences to read through reviews before deciding to see the film this weekend. In some cases, a narrow window between the critics’ embargo and a movie’s release can be a sign that a studio lacks confidence in the film and fears poor reviews could keep moviegoers away. In others, it is employed as a way of preventing major spoilers from leaking out to the public.

One bright spot for the “Aquaman” sequel is that it faces limited competition in theaters this weekend and could benefit from the upcoming holidays, as kids are on school vacation and parents seek out-of-home entertainment.

Also set for release this weekend is Universal’s newest animated feature “Migration,” which will likely entice families with younger children. There’s also Warner Bros.’ “Wonka,” which is entering its second week in theaters. “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” will rely less heavily on these younger moviegoers and more so on the male demographic aged 18 to 34 for whom there is limited stock in theaters this month.

“‘Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom’ [should] be judged when the dust settles in early January and not on its opening weekend performance,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.

Still, audiences have been lackluster on superhero flicks this year across the board. Last month, Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe posted its worst-ever opening weekend in its history with “The Marvels.” The film has grossed less than $200 million globally since its Nov. 10 release. Disney stopped reporting theatrical grosses for the film after Dec. 3.

DC has also faced difficulties at the box office. “Shazam: Fury of the Gods” and “Blue Beetle” both tallied less than $150 million during their global run in theaters this year, and the much-hyped “The Flash” secured less than $275 million worldwide.

“Marvel and DC have fallen into the trap that every genre eventually runs into — becoming predictable,” said Jeff Bock, senior box office analyst at Exhibitor Relations. “After so much success this was bound to happen. Time to break up the multiverse and concentrate on making singular superhero movies that stand on their own. Not every comic book flick needs connective tissue.”

The new “Aquaman” film has a lot to live up to, as well. The first film surprised Hollywood when it generated more than $1 billion at the global box office, making it the highest-grossing film in the DC Extended Universe franchise, which is traced back to 2013’s “Man of Steel.” Much of the interest from fans came following the 2017 release of “Justice League,” as moviegoers expected “Aquaman” to launch the franchise forward.

“The first ‘Aquaman’ back in December of 2018 was an enormous hit that went on to earn over $1 billion at the global box office,” said Dergarabedian. “But with 71% of the revenue coming from outside of North America this was clearly a franchise that relies heavily on the considerable star power of Jason Momoa internationally and the interest of audiences outside of The United States.”

The new “Aquaman” will also be released in China. But non-Chinese movies have not seen the same benefit in China as in the pre-pandemic years.

While Disney and 20th Century’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” secured $245 million in China, American superhero flicks have failed to drum up interest in the country in the last year. Marvel’s “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” generated only $40 million in ticket sales, DC’s “The Flash” took in just $25 million from the region, and the MCU’s “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” grabbed just $15 million. “Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3” grossed $86 million in China.

“The big question that needs to be answered: Can Aquaman exist outside the DC Universe in the same way Batman does?” Bock said.

Matt Reeves’ 2022 “The Batman,” a standalone film starring Robert Pattinson as the dark knight, generated more than $750 million in ticket sales globally and was not connected to any other project within the DC universe.

Similarly, Sony has seen success with its Spider-Verse films, generating nearly $400 million worldwide from the first animated film “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” and nearly $700 million globally from 2023’s “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.”

“It’s not canon. It lives in its own lane. And people love the character and that two versions can coexist,” said Josh Brown, CEO at Ritholtz Wealth Management and a CNBC contributor.

Even if DC Studios is willing to keep Momoa on as Aquaman in a pocket universe, there’s still the question of when a film like that could be released. Right now, Safran and Gunn’s new DC slate has five films on the docket, starting with the 2025 Superman flick. Characters to be featured include Supergirl, the duo of Batman and Damian Wayne, Swamp Thing and The Authority superhero team.

On the TV side, DC is leaning into the Lantern Corps., the Amazons of Themyscira, Booster Gold, and Amanda Waller from “Suicide Squad” and “Peacemaker.”

“There are only so many times that franchise comics characters can be retooled, reimagined, and repackaged within a certain limited time-frame,” said Peter Csathy, founder and chair of advisory firm Creative Media. “Disney’s Marvel films are experiencing that reality play out right now in the marketplace.”

Csathy also pointed to Disney’s Star Wars franchise, which paused its theatrical slate in favor of developing long-form television series to rebuild the series’ quality and bolster its fan base.

“Audiences need time to pass before excitement and anticipation builds again,” said Csathy.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal is the distributor of “Migration.”