Another Boeing Strike? Not If Both Sides Can Avoid It.

Boeing has generally been in a sustained recovery since Kelly Ortberg took over as CEO a year ago (See “Boeing Continues It’s Upward Climb in First Half of 2025,” Forbes.com, July 14, 2025), so the announcement Sunday of a potential strike by the 3,200 members of the International Association of Machinists (IAM) was unwelcome news.

Boeing’s production of the 737MAX breadwinner program has continued to hover at its 38 per month cap imposed by the FAA, and the company has notched significant wins for other programs, such as the 787 and 777 in the mid-east and Indonesia. In March, Boeing was awarded the Next Generation Air Dominance fighter program F-47 in a surprise win over Lockheed Martin.

The tragic crash of an Air India 787 on June 12, killing 260 people, does not appear at this point to be attributed to mechanical fault of the Boeing aircraft or General Electric powerplants. And the FAA is expected to raise the production cap on the 737MAX later this year.

The potential strike at the company’s Defense Systems unit in Saint Louis seems to have followed the same script as a month long strike in the Commercial Aircraft unit in October of 2024. That is, both sides appeared to have agreed to a contract acceptable to company and union management, only to have the rank and file overwhelmingly reject it (“A Failure To ‘Read The Room’—How Boeing And The Machinists Fell Into The Strike,” Forbes.com, September 16, 2024).

In the current case, 96% of the IAM District 837 rejected the proposal, which included a 20% general wage increase over four years, a $5,000 ratification bonus, and improved vacation and sick leave policies. All in, average wages were set to rise to approximately $100,000 per year for a machinist, according to Jeffries.

In the Commercial Aircraft unit strike, the final settlement raised general wages by 38%. Recent union actions at other aerospace companies, such as General Electric, Raytheon and Textron have resulted in similar boosts to wages.

Given the gains won by their peers in other divisions and companies, it is not surprising that the rank and file did not embrace what their union management was espousing. Even for those happy with the current economic state of affairs in the country, the specter of tariffs and inflation over the next four years threaten to quickly erode any current gains. Therefore, “push hard for all you can get now”, is sound reasoning.

The Saint Louis unit is the legacy military business of McDonnell Douglas, which merged with Boeing in 1996. It fabricates, machines and assembles the parts and components for the F-15 Eagle, the F-18 Hornet and the F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter aircraft.

And it will be a significant contributor, in the future, to Boeing’s defense business as the F-47 comes on line. Boeing had already invested $1.8 Billion in the program, centered in Saint Louis, and the 2025 Defense budget includes $20 Billion in expenditures over the next five years.

The IAM District 837 only represents approximately 2% of Boeing’s overall workforce, and both sides enter a one week cooling off period. It is likely the strike will be quickly settled, probably at levels commensurate with the other company and competitor deals, and should not materially affect Boeing’s overall recovery. But it does raise the question as to whether either side is truly in touch with their workforce.