Analyzing The Fit And Finances

If you have followed this page over the past couple weeks, you know full well that a certain someone has been advocating for the San Francisco 49ers to trade for Pro Bowl running back Christian McCaffrey.

I won’t go as far to say that general manager John Lynch and Co. heeded my call. But late Thursday evening, news broke that pretty much shattered the NFL news cycle.

Multiple media reports indicated that San Francisco did indeed acquire McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers in a blockbuster trade. Both San Francisco and Carolina made the deal official a bit while later.

In return for one of the game’s most-electric players, San Francisco sent second-and-third-round picks in 2023, a fourth-round pick next April and a fifth rounder in 2024 to Carolina.

To be clear, this is a high price to pay for an injury-plagued back who had suited up in a combined 10 games in the previous two seasons ahead of the 2022 campaign.

But it’s also a move that San Francisco viewed as a necessity following an ugly Week 6 loss to the Atlanta Falcons and with the team set to welcome the Kansas City Chiefs to town on Sunday.

A first-round pick of the Panthers out of Stanford back in 2017, McCaffrey has returned to pre-injury form this far this season with 670 total yards and three touchdowns through six games. Let’s break down this deal below.

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Christian McCaffrey’s Fit With The San Francisco 49ers

Objectively, it couldn’t be more ideal for both sides. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has always fancied himself dual-threat running backs dating back to his days as the Houston Texans’ offensive coordinator all the way back in 2008.

McCaffrey is just that. In fact, his 33 receptions this season would lead the 49ers. Prior to the injuries of the past two seasons, McCaffrey caught a combined 223 passes while hauling in 83.8% of his targets in 2018 and 2019.

It’s also not like McCaffrey doesn’t do damage on the ground. He’s averaging 61 rushing yards per game at a clip of 4.6 yards per attempt throughout his career.

McCaffrey has loads of experience in San Francisco’s outside zone-blocking scheme, too. That should make it a seamless transition for the star back.

The addition of McCaffrey changes the dynamics for San Francisco’s offense in a big way. Once he returns from injury, Elijah Mitchell will be used a change-of-pace back. The 49ers can also utilize current RB1 Jeff Wilson as a short-yardage guy. He’s scored a whopping 19 touchdowns in his past 37 games.

More importantly, opposing defenses are now going to have major issues game-planning against the 49ers.

Deebo Samuel likely won’t need to see much action in the backfield with McCaffrey in the mix. He can now focus primarily on being a wide receiver opposite breakout player Brandon Aiyuk.

The idea of defenses having to plan for formations with the likes of McCaffrey, Kittle, Samuel and Aiyuk all on the field is a thing of nightmares for coordinators.

Finances Of The Christian McCaffrey Trade

From a salary cap perspective, this deal does very little in 2022. McCaffrey is due a mere $1.035 million base salary after restructuring his conract with Carolina back in the spring. San Francisco is on the hook for a pro-rated version of that (roughly $669,705.00).

The long-term outlook is different. McCaffrey is playing under a four-year, $64 million contract that he signed back in April of 2020. He’s set to count $19.55 million against the cap in 2023 with cap hits of $19.55 million in 2024 and $15.45 million in 2025.

In terms of the 49ers responsibility for that, he’ll count $12 million against their cap in 2023 and 2024 with a $12.2 million hit in 2025.

By taking on McCaffrey’s contract, Lynch and Co. are now committing top-end cash to yet another position.

Even prior to this blockbuster trade, the likes of fullback Kyle Juszczyk, tight end George Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams, linebacker Fred Warner, wide receiver Deebo Samuel and defensive lineman Arik Armstead were among the highest-paid NFL players at their respective positions.

This doesn’t even take into account the need to sign Pro Bowl edge rusher Nick Bosa to what would be a record-breaking contract extension next summer. His new deal will likely come in at somewhere near $25 million annually.

Prior to this deal, San Francisco was projected to have roughly $18.5 million in cap room for next season. The McCaffrey trade brings this to well under $10 million.

Financial gymnastics would have to be part of the game for the 49ers’ front office. This would likely include restructuring the contracts of Williams, Armstead, Warner, Kittle and Charvarius Ward, who are set to count a combined $76-plus million against the cap in 2023.

As it stands, the 49ers have avenues that could help with the cap next spring. The increase in the NFL salary cap moving forward due to its historic television contracts will help here, too.

Remaining San Francisco 49ers Draft Picks Following Christian McCaffrey Trade

On the surface, this deal seems to deplete San Francisco’s draft capital, especially with its first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft already gone due to the Trey Lance deal.

That’s just on the surface. The 49ers are projected to pick up two third-round compensatory picks under the guise of the NFL’s minority hiring program. It should also pick up a fifth, sixth and seventh via the NFL free-agent compensation loophole.

This should leave the 49ers with a nice amount of selections once all is said and done. Sure they’ll be without picks in the first two rounds. But the question becomes whether anyone selected in that range would have anywhere near the same impact as a healthy Christian McCaffrey over the next three-plus seasons. It seems highly unlikely.