Analyst revises Tesla stock price target ahead of ‘best quarter ever’ 

The share price of electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is creating a buzz in the market amid anticipation of impressive Q3 2024 results, and now analysts are stepping in to offer their outlook on the equity.

Specifically, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter has raised his price target on Tesla from $300 to $310, citing a potential record-breaking third quarter for the electric vehicle giant.

Potter supports this outlook by highlighting the company’s expected deliveries of 459,000 units for the third quarter, which he considers impressive, especially given that the Texas-based firm has faced sluggish sales in Europe. He believes a strong demand for key markets such as North America and China will be crucial.

“We raised our price target on Tesla to $310 from $300 after reviewing intra-quarter sales data, and we now model 459,000 deliveries for Q3 and 1.75M units for fiscal 2024. ‘Q3 seems likely to be Tesla’s best quarter ever, despite weak European sales,” Potter said. 

The revision was also centered on a review of Tesla’s intra-quarter sales data, which points to the company’s continued growth trajectory, particularly in the U.S., fueled by demand around the Cybertruck. This uptick in deliveries supports Piper Sandler’s updated projection of 1.75 million units for fiscal 2024.

According to Potter, the third quarter could mark a milestone for Tesla’s business in China. Potter’s team, using weekly registration data available in China but not in other regions, is confident that Tesla will exceed 175,000 units delivered in Q3 in the country alone.

Analysts remain bullish on Tesla’s Q3 earnings report 

As things stand, most analysts anticipate an impressive Q3 for Tesla regarding deliveries. For instance, Barclays analyst Dan Levy projected that the company’s third-quarter deliveries would likely arrive at 470,000 vehicles, against a market consensus forecast of about 460,000 units.

Similarly, Wolfe Research’s Emmanuel Rosner noted that he expects deliveries to reach 460,000 vehicles—a 6% year-over-year increase and a 4% rise from Q2 figures. He expects China to offset a possible slowdown in Europe and account for 172,000 units, as reported by Finbold on September 18.

In addition to the upcoming earnings report, bullish sentiments are also centered around the company’s October 10 Robotaxi event, where the Elon Musk-led firm will showcase its  Full Self-Driving technology and the “cyber cab,” a driverless taxi that leverages the autonomous driving program.

The rollout of the Robotaxi is also expected to help the company establish itself in the artificial intelligence (AI) space. To this end, Mark Newton, a technical analyst at Fundstrat Global Advisors, believes that investors should view Tesla as an undervalued AI stock with the potential for future growth, citing products such as the Robotaxi. 

What next for Tesla stock 

A review of Tesla’s stock price movements shows that the equity rose to start a new week of trading, moving into positive territory for the year-to-date, where gains are now over 2%. At the start of the year, Tesla stock was impacted by the overall slowdown in the EV market. 

At the close of the latest session, TSLA was trading at $254, with daily gains of almost 2%, while on the weekly chart, the equity was up 10%.

On the other hand, a Tesla stock analyst, known by the pseudonym TSLA Tracker, noted in an X post on September 24 that the equity still has potential upside, likely culminating in a high of $580.

Based on Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci extensions, the analysis outlined a bullish wave structure that may propel the stock to a new high by mid-2025. According to the expert, Tesla has formed a series of corrective waves over the past year. 

The stock is nearing a critical pivot point at $314, with further key Fibonacci resistance levels at $364, $411, and $496. Should these levels be breached, the chart suggests that a strong rally toward $580 could unfold. The Fibonacci extensions to 2.236 and 2.382 levels indicate a target range of $580 to $609.

However, the analyst cautioned that a more bearish scenario could unfold if Tesla fails to hold above $233, potentially delaying the rally.

Considering all factors, Tesla’s stock seems positioned for a potential breakout, driven by robust third-quarter expectations. However, a bearish turn could delay the anticipated gains if the stock fails to hold above critical support levels.