Analysing Serie A’s Champions League 2023-24 Prospects

Sandro Tonali only left Milan two months ago, but the Italian will be back playing against his old side sooner than expected.

That’s because his new side, Newcastle, have been paired in the same group as his former side in the 2023-24 Champions League group stage. Newcastle’s first foray into Uefa’s premiere competition for two decades sees them in a group alongside Paris Saint-Germain and Borussia Dortmund in what is without doubt the toughest group.

For Milan, Stefano Pioli’s men will have to be at the top of their game if they are to advance into the round of 16. So far, much of the money Newcastle spent on Tonali has been reinvested well by the Rossoneri. Christian Pulisic scored on his debut and looks to be revitalised with his move to Italy, while midfielders Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Tijjani Reijnders have also flourished from the off. Dortmund are light years away from the days when they were the hipster’s choice for a deep run in this competition, with the German club comprehensively bottling the Bundesliga title on the final day of last season to Bayern. Since then, Jude Bellingham has been sold to Real Madrid and it remains to be seen if they can put up a decent challenge to the other sides in the group.

As for PSG, they are somewhat unknown. Lionel Messi and Neymar have both left, while Marco Verratti has been frozen out by new coach Luis Enrique. Yet the lack of superstars may mean that the French side – often criticised for catering to the whims of their star players – could be a much better and more more well-balanced side this season under the Spaniard. Milan will have work to do in order to advance, but they should have the quality to finish ahead of Newcastle and Dortmund, with the former likely to get punished for their lack of European nous.

Milan’s city cousins Inter, meanwhile, have a relatively simpler group. Last season, Inter advanced at the expense of Barcelona along with Bayern Munich and went on to reach the final. Benfica, who Inter beat in the quarter final last season, are again paired, while Real Sociedad and RB Salzburg complete the group. Despite losing Andre Onana, Edin Dzeko, Milan Skriniar and Romelu Lukaku, Inter should have more than enough to top the group this time around.

Lazio, back in the competition for the first time since 2020/21, face a tough challenge. Atletico Madrid, coached by Lazio legend Diego Simeone, will likely top the group, with Celtic and Dutch side Feyenoord making life difficult for Maurizio Sarri’s men. The Roman club have lost Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and look weaker than the side that only finished second due to Juventus’ points deduction last season.

Italian champions Napoli should advance in their group. Paired with Real Madrid, Braga and first-timers Union Berlin. Victor Osimhen and friends should battle with Los Blancos to top the group. Napoli have had an unlucky history insofar as receiving difficult groups more than other Italian sides, but this should be a routine passage and Champions League football post-Christmas.

Last season, Serie A had three teams make it into the knockout phases. Given the nature of the draw, we could see a similar amount of sides make it through. This season represents the last traditional group stage, with Uefa switching to the ‘Swiss model’ from next season onwards as a means of appeasing the European elite. Serie A has never had four participants in the round of 16 in the current format’s history, and it feels unlikely that the last season will buck that trend.