An Era Of Post-Pandemic Airline And Airport Growth Is Ending

Because of the pandemic, U.S. airline traffic declined by 60% in 2020. It had been rising ever since – until now, when the era of post-pandemic travel growth appears to be ending.

Indications of the decline are everywhere, Most recently, Delta Air Lines said Wednesday on its first quarter earnings call that in the second half, it expects that it will not grow at all. Previously, the carrier had planned second half capacity growth of 4%. Full-year growth now appears to be 2%.

“Demand deteriorated throughout 1Q, and we do not envy management teams trying to guide in this unknown environment,” Bank of America analyst Andrew Didora wrote in a recent report. “There is no place to hide from softening demand trends.”

At an investor conference last month, United said it will retire 21 aircraft earlier. In earnings calls on Wednesday April 16 and Thursday, April 24, United and American respectively are expected to detail their 2025 capacity planning.

From Jan. 1 through April 10, Transportation Security Administration screening numbers show a slight decline to 229,567,151 passengers from 231,062,967 for the same period a year earlier.

The decline has multiple causes, of which recession fears seem the most impactful, especially regarding domestic travel. Delta has also cited bad weather and fear of flying after accidents as factors leading to a decline in projected revenue. Traffic from Canada and Mexico has diminished due to tariff battles, as has traffic from Western Europe. Also, aircraft are in short supply as Airbus and Boeing struggle to deliver them.

“The positive industry thesis that drove airline stocks in 2024 was always predicated on demand staying status quo,” Didora wrote. “That has obviously changed since early February driven by macro uncertainty, DOGE cuts, weaker consumer confidence, poor transborder traffic, business travel flattening out, and recent comments that transatlantic demand was slowing.”.

At Charlotte Douglas International Airport, the trend is particularly clear. Through the first three months of 2025, traffic fell 7.5%, airport officials told reporters last week. “Most airports will have that same story,” Airport Chief Operating Officer Jerome Woodard said. “Most are doing a little bit of a pullback.” Most airports have not yet reported first quarter traffic totals.

In the first two months, passenger traffic at Atlanta, declined 1.35%, while at Dallas Fort Worth, passenger traffic declined 1.8%. For the three major New York airports, traffic was flat during the period.

Charlotte is the second largest hub for American, the world’s largest airline. Traffic is 92% domestic. In 2024, traffic totaled 58.8 million, up 10% from 2023. The airport has set new passenger records in five of the last eight years, with 2020 to 2022 being the only exceptions. About 70% of passengers connect between American flights.

Last week, Haley Gentry, Charlotte Douglas CEO, told the Charlotte City Council that the airport anticipates the number of travelers this summer will be flat compared with last year.

In answer to a question at a City Council committee meeting, Gentry said that the strong passenger growth of the last few years — which last summer caused crowding in the terminals and the airport lobby and strained parking availability — is leveling off, according to The Charlotte Ledger.

“Our hub was very strong last summer,” she said. “I think you will see a flattening of that coming up this summer. … I’m expecting it to be status quo. You won’t see the increase that you saw last year.”

The rapid growth “absolutely put pressure on our organization: parking, pre-security, the [gate] areas and the ability for people to get in and out on food, beverage and retail,” she said.

Gentry implied that the growth sprang largely from American unexpectedly adding flights, which the airport is contractually obliged to accommodate, The Ledger reported. “The hub does not always ask permission in terms of ‘Can we do X, Y and Z?,’”she said.

American spokeswoman Andrea Koos said, “Our focus is always on delivering for our customers. We are constantly evaluating our flight schedule at CLT and have added more flights to the West Coast and upgauged a London flight to our Flagship aircraft, the Boeing 777-300ER.” This month, American’s Charlotte capacity is up 1%.

Gentry told the council that construction at the airport is on track to finish this fall, and that the airport continues to try to improve the customer experience: “It was a lot of pressure, very quickly, and we’ve learned a lot from it.”