America’s Newest Export: The Shale Revolution

Mapuche indigenous spokeswoman Lorena Bravo, wrapped in a Mapuche flag near a gas plant at Campo Maripe, a land claimed by her community, in Anelo, Neuquen province, Argentina, in the Vaca Muerta Formation. Vaca Muerta is an enormous non-conventional oil and gas deposit nestled in a geologic formation. It occupies over 30,000 square kilometers in the states of Neuquen, Rio Negro, La Pampa and Mendoza. (Photo by Emiliano Lasalvia / AFP) (Photo by EMILIANO LASALVIA/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

The U.S. shale oil and gas boom that began early this century had enormous geopolitical implications. Without it, the U.S. would have become increasingly dependent upon imports to meet energy needs, and prices would have undoubtedly been higher. In fact, in the years leading up to the shale revolution, natural gas prices spiked, and oil prices rose above $100 a barrel.

But the ensuing surge of oil and natural gas production in the U.S. would subsequently turn the U.S. into the world’s largest oil and gas producer. This weakened OPEC’s control of the global oil markets, and the U.S. would go on to become the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas.

But shale oil and gas resources are not limited to the U.S. The map below from the Energy Information Administration shows how widely dispersed these resources are around the globe.

As the U.S. shale revolution matures and its growth shows signs of plateauing, energy markets are increasingly evaluating which countries might follow the path of the U.S. Several countries are positioning themselves for a shale boom, with profound implications for energy security, geopolitical leverage, and investment opportunity.

Argentina: The Next Big Thing

Consider Vaca Muerta—a formation that until recently was more promise than production. Located in the Neuquén Basin of northern Patagonia, Argentina’s unconventional play is now showing commercial traction. According to the EIA, the technically recoverable resource in the basin is approximately 16 billion barrels of oil and 308 trillion cubic feet of gas. In 2024 the basin’s oil output rose by 27% and gas went up by 23% year-over-year.

Major players such as YPF, Chevron, and Shell are deeply engaged. Chevron, for instance, has publicly stated that Vaca Muerta is one of the world’s most significant unconventional oil reserves—and has committed to raising its output to 30,000 barrels per day by year-end 2025.

Of course, Argentina faces classical shale hurdles—regulatory and fiscal uncertainty, high well costs, water logistics, and infrastructure bottlenecks. But the upward momentum is real. In short, Vaca Muerta is the first non-U.S. basin showing credible scale and investment depth.

China: A Silent Giant With Massive Potential

Then there’s China, which holds the largest technically recoverable shale gas reserves in the world, centered in the Sichuan Basin. While development has been slow—due to complex geology, difficult access, and water constraints—China is deploying digital drilling, horizontal wells, and hydraulic stimulations to accelerate progress. If successful, China’s shale gas push could reshape the region’s LNG flows and reduce coal dependence.

While less flashy than Argentina’s oil surge, China’s potential lies in scale and transformative impact: a domestic shift that would ripple through global energy trade. Success there could upend global LNG markets, reduce Asian coal demand, and strengthen China’s energy independence.

Saudi Arabia: Shale for Strategic Gas

The third major narrative is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Saudi Aramco’s unconventional pivot. The Jafurah Basin has been described as “the jewel of our unconventional gas program,” with roughly 229 trillion cubic feet of raw gas and 75 billion barrels of condensate-in-place. First production is scheduled for 2025, with target sales of 2 billion cubic feet per day by 2030.

Why does this matter? Because Saudi Arabia is transitioning from oil-fired domestic power toward gas-fueled industrial capacity, freeing up crude for export and reducing the carbon intensity of its own economy. From an investor perspective, the project signals that shale—in this case gas-rich shale—is becoming strategic infrastructure, not just exploration hype.

Other Contenders

Beyond those three, several other countries warrant attention:

• Russia has immense shale oil and gas potential—second in shale oil only to the United States by some estimates—but development remains limited. With abundant and lower-cost conventional reserves, Moscow has little economic motivation to invest heavily in shale technologies, especially under Western sanctions that restrict access to advanced drilling equipment.
• Canada, particularly Alberta and British Columbia, continues to invest in unconventional gas and liquids plays albeit at a slower growth pace.
• Australia has geological promise (Cooper and Canning Basins) but remains held back by environmental and regulatory hurdles.
• Mexico holds enormous potential yet faces a maze of infrastructure and regulatory challenges.
• Colombia is advancing pilot projects in the Magdalena Valley, with state oil company Ecopetrol exploring shale oil opportunities despite social and legal hurdles.
• India has begun assessing shale prospects in the Cambay and Krishna-Godavari basins, though high population density and complex land rules present major challenges.
• United Arab Emirates is investing in unconventional gas fields in the Al Dhafra region as part of its goal to achieve gas self-sufficiency by 2030.
• South Africa continues to study the Karoo Basin’s large shale gas potential, but environmental concerns and water scarcity remain significant barriers.
• The United Kingdom has rich shale gas resources in the Bowland Basin, yet strong public opposition and a government moratorium have frozen activity.

What Investors Should Watch

While the U.S. remains the benchmark for shale efficiency and scale, these overseas plays offer differentiated opportunities. As other countries develop their shale resources, keep tabs on:

• Infrastructure build-out: pipelines, export terminals, rig count, and logistics.
• Export capacity development: LNG terminals, oil export pipelines, and geopolitical off-take capacity.
• Domestic policy shifts: regulatory stability, fiscal regime, water access, and environmental licensing.
• State-backed partnerships: Many of these plays are not entirely private-sector. National oil companies, sovereign funds, and strategic infrastructure arms are key players.

The Bottom Line

Although the shale story in the U.S. isn’t over, it’s on the cusp of entering a new phase. But the next wave may not come from tight oil in Texas. Instead, it may arise in Argentina, China, and Saudi Arabia. For investors and energy strategists alike, the global unconventional plays offer a different set of risks—and potentially outsized rewards.

The Permian remains the center of the shale boom for now. But the frontier is shifting, the players are changing, and the global scale of unconventional oil and gas demand is only growing.