Americans More Worried About Violent Crime As Republicans Make It A Top Midterm Issue

Topline

Americans have grown significantly more concerned about becoming victims of violent crime like murder, sexual assault and muggings over the last year, according to a new Gallup poll, as Republican midterm candidates across the country blame Democrats for what they present as skyrocketing crime—though actual crime data is more mixed.

Americans are growing increasingly worried about crime, according to a new poll, as Republican … [+] midterm candidates make crime concerns a major campaign issue.

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Key Facts

Some 78% of the 1,009 respondents surveyed from October 3-20 said they believe crime rates are rising nationally, while 56% said they think crime is rising where they live.

Those numbers are far above what’s seen in an average year: Over the last few decades, an average of about 67% of respondents have said crime is rising nationally and only 44% have said the same about their local crime rate, according to Gallup, which has polled annually on both issues since 1989.

There’s a massive partisan divide when it comes to crime perception, according to the poll—73% of Republicans said crime is going up where they live, compared to 51% of independents and 42% of Democrats.

Some 47% of respondents said they’re worried about their child being harmed at school, up 13 points from last year’s survey, the steepest year-over-year increase in fear for any of the potential crimes surveyed by Gallup.

Concern about being sexual assaulted had the next-biggest increase (29% this year, up eight points from 2021), followed by getting murdered (up seven points to 29%), being attacked while driving a car (up seven points to 36%) and getting mugged (up seven points to 40%).

Key Background

Whether crime is actually skyrocketing across the country remains an open question, and one that is complicated by incomplete statistics. The FBI released a crime report earlier this month finding violent crime actually dropped by about 1% from 2020 to 2021, but about 40% of law enforcement agencies, including many big city police departments, did not supply information. A separate report released by the Major Cities Chiefs Association for the first half of 2022, which includes most big cities like New York City and Los Angeles, found the total murder rate in urban areas is down 2.4% compared with the first half of 2021, with rapes down just over 5%. Robberies, however, were up 13% compared to last year and aggravated assaults rose 2.6%, both of which are more common than homicide and rape. Similarly, a report earlier this year by the Council on Criminal Justice found property crimes like robbery, burglary and larceny jumped in 29 U.S. cities in the first half of this year as murder rates dropped slightly, reversing a trend from earlier in the Covid-19 pandemic, when property crime fell while murder rates increased. Republicans have embraced crime concerns as one of their signature midterm campaign issues, along with inflation, blaming President Joe Biden and fellow Democrats for the problems, even though the president has little direct influence on inflation or local crime trends.

Surprising Fact

Crime has soared as a talking point on cable news networks over the past six weeks, especially on conservative-leaning Fox News, according to a Washington Post analysis.

What To Watch For

Republicans seem to be making major inroads with undecided voters just weeks before the election, regardless of actual crime statistics. The GOP has closed polling gaps in pivotal Senate contests, like Pennsylvania’s and Georgia’s, and party officials are growing increasingly optimistic they will retake control of both the House and the Senate.

Topline

Key Facts

Key Background

Surprising Fact

What To Watch For

Further Reading