American Public Opinion At The Six Month Mark

August 24 marks the sixth month anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The polls conducted over the past six months reveal some powerful continuities with attitudes from the past and one substantial change. But first a word about the polls themselves.

Pollsters have short attention spans. All sorts of news stories compete for their attention on a weekly basis. They polled extensively on attitudes toward Russia’s invasion after it began on February 24, but with a few exceptions, they have since moved on. In this they are mirroring the public. Questions that measure how much attention Americans are paying to various issues show the public’s interest has flagged, but support for Ukraine’s cause has not. Here’s what we know at the sixth month mark.

Importance: In a mid-July Fox News poll of registered voters, 69% said they were concerned about Russia’s invasion, down from 82% in March. In terms of concern, the issue ranked sixth of eight issues tested. In Chicago Council polling earlier this year, however, the highest percentage since 1990 viewed Russia military power as a critical threat to US vital interests. More people than at any time since 2014 also viewed Russian territorial ambitions as a key threat. Unfavorable views of Russia were rising even before the invasion. Eight-five percent in Gallup’s early 2022 poll had a negative view, up from 44% a decade ago.

Biden’s Response: Americans have not rallied to Joe Biden’s handling of Ukraine. Forty-two percent in the Fox poll approved of his response to Russia’s invasion, while 55% disapproved. These responses are similar to responses in three other Fox News polls conducted since March. Still, Biden’s support on the war polls is higher than his support for handling other issues such as the economy. Biden still receives more blame for the current price of gasoline than the war in Ukraine does (31% and 20%, respectively, in the Fox poll).

A key question for the Biden administration is whether the public believes the US is doing too much. Thirty-eight percent in a June Quinnipiac poll said the US was doing about the right amount to help Ukraine; the remainder split, 26% too much, and 27% too little. The “right amount” response predominates in most polls. A late July Harvard/Harris poll of registered voters found that 53% said the US should “send billions more in military equipment to Ukraine if Russia continues its invasion and tries to annex more of its lands” while 47% said the US has “donated enough and should stop.” Sixty-five percent of Democrats, 44% of Republicans, and 49% of independents favored sending billions.

April and May polls from AP/NORC found strong support for economic sanctions (around 70%) and providing weapons (around 60%). A more pointed question provides a different impression. Forty-five percent in their May poll (down from 55% in a March one) said the bigger priority for the US was “sanctioning Russia as effectively as possible, even if it damages the US economy,” while a bare majority, 51%, chose “limiting damage to the US economy, even if it means sanctions on Russia are less effective.”

US Troops: A consistent theme in surveys from the past is Americans’ reluctance to put US troops in harm’s way, and the polls show majorities oppose deploying US troops to Ukraine. In the AP/NORC polls, only two in ten were in favor, while around 55% were opposed. Slightly more than two in ten indicated they neither favored nor opposed this policy.

The Human Cost: In the AP/NORC polls there was strong support (around 75%) for providing humanitarian aid to refugees from Ukraine. Support for bringing refugees to the United States was also high and this is a change from Americans’ attitudes historically. Around 65% approved of resettlement in both AP/NORC polls with 15% opposed. Gallup reported in April that 78% supported admitting up to 100,000 refugees, which was “the highest level of US public support for admitting refugees that Gallup has found in its polling on various refugee situations since 1939.” In 1939, only 26 percent of those surveyed supported accepting 10,000 refugee children, and in 1947 amidst another European refugee crisis, 24% supported accepting 10,000 refugees. Just a third in a 1958 poll favored accepting Hungarian refugees after the Soviets crushed the population’s rebellion.

Winners and Losers: Pollsters cover elections and wars in terms of who is winning and losing. In the mid-August Economist/YouGov poll, 22% said Russia is winning, 18% Ukraine, and 39% neither side. When asked who would win, 29% said Russia would, 25% Ukraine. In the early months of the war, more people said Ukraine would be the likely winner.