Amanda Serrano Vs. Erika Cruz: Odds, Records, Prediction

As we wait for the second installment of the Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano rivalry, one of the best fights of 2022 that almost surely will happen again in 2023, Serrano is keeping her career in motion for the time being against Erika Cruz. Well, it has slightly more importance than a stay-busy fight. Taylor owns three of the featherweight belts, and Cruz has one. So, whichever pugilist wins on Saturday night would become the undisputed champion at 126 pounds. Here’s everything you need to know about Amanda Serrano vs. Erika Cruz, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Ten months ago, Serrano fought for the undisputed lightweight title, falling by split decision to Taylor. Although she’s held belts in seven weight classes, Serrano has never held all four titles in a weight class at the same time. At featherweight, Serrano holds three-quarters of the straps, and she’s itching to lift Cruz’s belt to give herself all four.

“Undisputed means a lot,” Serrano said this week. “It means you are the best; you have everyone looking to beat you, you are top dog, unquestionably No. 1 in the division. Becoming the first undisputed champion at featherweight would be so cool after being a pro for 14 years.”

She’s highly favored to do so. One way the promoters are selling this event to the public is that it’s another chapter of the always-intense Mexico vs. Puerto Rico boxing rivalry that oftentimes produces top-level fights. Naturally, Serrano (born in Puerto Rico) and Cruz (who is from Mexico and who has fought all but one of her bouts there) have played up their heritage in the matchup.

“This is a pivotal moment, not just for me and my own career, but for my home island of Puerto Rico,” Serrano said. “Earning the opportunity to be an undisputed lineal champion is something most fighters only dream about, but becoming the first boxer from Puerto Rico to be an undisputed champion would make it even more special . . .

“There’s nothing like Mexico vs. Puerto Rico. The rivalry has been there forever, and I’m honored to share the ring with her. We have the same goal here: she’s a champion and I’m a champion. We want the same thing and I think she’s going to fight like all great Mexican fighters do, with all her heart.

Said Cruz: “It’s time to make history and give Mexico its first unified champion at 126 pounds.”

Here’s more info on the Amanda Serrano vs. Erika Cruz showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on DAZN beginning at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Amanda Serrano vs. Erika Cruz odds

Serrano was the -800 betting favorite, as of Friday, meaning you’d have to bet $800 on that money line to win $100. Meanwhile, Cruz was the +450 underdog (win $450 on a $100 wager). I’d ignore the money lines, and if you like Serrano and her KO power, you could bet her to win by stoppage at +225 (though I don’t think she’s going to win that way and think there’s a better chance she wins by decision at -175). If you like Cruz, I’d go with her to win by decision at +850.

Amanda Serrano vs. Erika Cruz records

Since suffering her first defeat in 10 years at the hands of Taylor (a fight I actually thought Serrano won), Serrano returned in September and decisioned the undefeated Sarah Mahfoud. At 43-2-1 (30 KOs), Serrano has beaten opponents like Heather Hardy, Yamileth Mercado and Daniela Bermudez. Serrano is almost certainly a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

After losing in only the second fight of her career, Cruz (15-1, 3 KOs) is on a 14-fight winning streak, and she’s scored her two biggest victories in the past 22 months by twice decisioning former lightweight titlist Jelena Mrdjenovich (and not losing a single round on any judge’s scorecard while doing so). But remember that Cruz has never faced anybody with the talent of Serrano before.

Amanda Serrano vs. Erika Cruz prediction

Despite her phenomenal KO percentage, Serrano hasn’t forced a stoppage in her last four fights, dating back to August 2021. Now that she’s in her mid-30s, you have to wonder if her power is beginning to slightly decrease (though power is usually the last attribute to go for a puncher like her). I like Cruz’s chance to survive all 10 rounds, but I don’t think she has much of a chance of outboxing Serrano. Say Serrano by decision, somewhere in the 98-92 range.