October is shaping up to be a pressure test for altcoins. According to CryptoRank, more than $3.9 billion worth of tokens will be released into circulation this month, creating a tug-of-war between sell-side pressure and long-term bullish sentiment.
Instead of focusing on just one project, the spotlight is spread across several major names. Aster is set for the largest single release, freeing more than $500 million in tokens during the first week of the month. Sui, which already saw nearly $180 million unlocked at the start of October, also joins the early wave alongside Ethena. As the weeks progress, Aptos, Arbitrum, and pump.fun will each add tens of millions more to the market, while Zora plans to inject 10% of its total supply before month’s end. Smaller but notable events, including LayerZero and Plasma, round out the schedule.
Supply Pressure Meets Accumulation Cycle
Ordinarily, such an influx of supply would be considered bearish, as early investors and insiders often use these unlocks as an opportunity to sell. But analysts are quick to point out that the market backdrop is unusual. Altcoins have now spent more than three years in sideways accumulation – the longest consolidation period in crypto’s history. Previous multi-year plateaus in 2017 and 2021 eventually broke into powerful rallies, and many believe the stage is being set for a repeat.
This prolonged build-up has created a market that is both fatigued and tightly coiled. Traders who have sat through years of range-bound price action are now looking at Q4 as the moment where sentiment could shift decisively. In such an environment, even events that usually bring negative pressure, like token unlocks, can become catalysts for major price movements.
Q4 Has History on Its Side
Timing may prove to be just as important as raw numbers. The arrival of Q4 has historically triggered strong upside across the altcoin sector, with October often acting as the spark. If past cycles are any guide, the seasonal tailwinds could overpower near-term selling pressure and flip these unlock events into opportunities for accumulation.
For now, traders are preparing for turbulence, but history suggests that what begins as supply pressure could just as easily evolve into the launchpad for the next altcoin breakout. The market’s response to October’s flood of tokens may end up shaping the direction of the entire crypto sector heading into year’s end.
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Source: https://coindoo.com/altcoins-face-billions-in-unlocks-just-as-q4-rally-season-begins/