Exports from Paine Field adjacent to Boeing’s manufacturing complex outside of Seattle and included … [+]
Boeing
The bump was based on the hopes that the beleaguered airline might beat out rival Airbus for a possible contract for more than 100 United widebody jets.
After a bumpy ride the last several years — two fatal crashes and a global pandemic — Boeing could use a “good” bump.
Regardless which one of the world’s two dominate aircraft manufacturers wins the contract, presuming it comes to fruition — Chicago-based Boeing or the European consortium Airbus — something will happen this year that has not not happened in decades.
The United States will almost certainly see the primary aircraft category, the one that includes Boeing jets, fall to a No. 4 rank in 2022.
That, to my knowledge, has not happened for decades. Prior to the release of 2021 data earlier this year, the category had ranked first among more than 1,200 categories in 14 of the previous 17 years. It ranked second the other three.
Boeing, as the overwhelmingly dominant force in the aviation category, has long been the poster child for American exports, a sign of American might.
This is the sixth in a series of columns about the nation’s exports. It follows similar series I did for the countries that were, at the time, the nation’s top 10 trade partners and one for the airports, seaports and border crossings that were, at the time, the nation’s top 10 “ports.”
The first article in this series focused on an overview of the top 10 exports. The second looked at the top 10 countries that are markets for U.S. exports and how they differ from our overall trade partners, which would include imports.
The big three energy exports — refined petroleum, oil and natural gas — now all outrank the … [+]
The third was about refined petroleum, the top export, followed by one on oil, which ranks second, and natural gas, which includes LNG and ranks third.
The good news, short of any announcement by United, is that exports in the primary aviation category, which includes jets and parts, is showing an increase this year, up 14.85%.
That’s slower growth than overall U.S. exports, which are up 20.74%. And well below the increase for high-flying refined petroleum, oil and natural gas, which are up 120.66%, 121.52% and 222.44%, respectively.
But considering that aircraft exports, at $56.29 billion through August, are down 31.65% from the same eight months of 2018, before the crashes and before the pandemic, the road to recovery remains long. In that same time period that aircraft exports fell almost 32%, U.S. exports have risen 23.94%.
Most severely affected in that time period among U.S. airports has been Paine Field near Seattle, which the U.S. Census Bureau includes with the Port of Everett and its ocean cargo. Paine Field is adjacent to Boeing’s manufacturing operations, an enormous complex home to the “largest building in the world.”
Aviation exports from there stood at $2.88 billion through this August, which is an increase from the same eight months last year, when the total was $1.74 billion. But for eight consecutive years, from 2012 to 2019, exports through August topped $10 billion, including three years above $15 billion and one above $19 billion.
Commercial jet and part exports from Paine Field led the nation 14 of 15 years, from 2005 through 2019. In 2020, exports from Cleveland’s Hopkins International Airport led the nation on an annualized basis. In 2021, it was Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, which is on top this year as well.
Aircraft exports were riding high until 2020 and have yet to recover.
It appears the recovery, for Boeing and for U.S. aviation exports generally, will be underway when the numbers tied to Paine Field start rising to the top again.
At this point, it ranks No. 8, behind not only Seattle-Tacoma International Airport but also Miami International Airport, Cleveland International Airport, New Orleans International Airport, Atlanta International Airport, JFK International Airport and Los Angeles International Airport.
It’s been a bumpy few years for Boeing, long a stalwart performer among U.S. exports, one of the most powerful U.S. brands on the global market. It could use a “good” bump from United.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenroberts/2022/10/15/top-10-us-exports-aircraft-on-path-to-lowest-ranking-in-decades/