Airbus Outlines Five Ways U.S. Airlines Can Meet 2050 Net-Zero Commitment

The world airline industry, though the International Air Transport Association (IATA), has made a bold pledge to be “net-zero” in emissions by 2050. While the airlines worldwide contribute only 2.5-4.0% of the world’s carbon emissions, this initiative is important for many reasons. One is that companies are increasingly reducing business flying as a way to be better stewards to the environment, so reducing the airline carbon footprint would not threaten future traffic. Another is if such a fuel-intensive business as an airline can truly fully offset their carbon emissions, many other businesses should take this plunge too.

Saying it and doing it are two different things of course. 2050 sounds like a long way off, but the main levers to make this happen also have long lead times. Airbus has put together a set of very practical solutions that the industry could follow to meet this aggressive target. While not perfect and requiring some big assumptions, it is the clearest path so far set to make this goal become a reality. The five key initiatives are:

Full Conversion To Latest Generation Aircraft

The newest generation aircraft being produced by both Boeing and Airbus use engines that are significantly more fuel efficient. Roughly only 20% of the planes flying in the world today are part of this group, however. There are more than twice as many older-generation Airbus A320 planes (called the CEO) compared with the latest generation, called the A320 NEO. Airbus is no longer making the older model, so over time this ratio will change.

Between now and 2050, most if not all of these older generation aircraft will be replaced with newer technology equipment. Even a 10-year old Boeing 737MAX will be more fuel efficient than a new Boeing 737NG. Thus, even though not every airline will replace their older equipment with brand-new equipment, there should be a healthy market for used fuel-efficient equipment long before 2050. This conversion alone, with no other changes, will reduce the industry’s carbon emissions by almost 20%.

Sustainable Aircraft Fuel

Creating a full scale infrastructure to produce, store, and deliver sustainable aircraft fuel (SAF) is a major initiative already under way by the industry. SAF creates carbon emissions similar to regular aviation jet fuel, but the difference is that the carbon produced helps to grow the plants that go on to produce more of the SAF. Also, the source of the fuel is fully renewable through plant-based growth, rather than drilling for underground oil. When all planes are using SAF, this provides the biggest single improvement to meet the 2050 net-zero target.

Many airlines are already experimenting with SAF operated flights. United Airlines has already operated a flight with 100% SAF. Most other large U.S. Airlines including Southwest, American, JetBlue and Alaska have operated flight using some SAF and have each outlined plans to integrate this further as the infrastructure allows. While the large-scale infrastructure needed to make this the unique source of energy for worldwide aviation is considerable, it is feasible over the next 20 years and thus a significant and likely achievable piece of the plan.

Operations and Infrastructure Improvements

Airlines use a lot of fuel due to inefficiencies in flying. These are caused by weather, but also but inefficient and outdated air traffic control systems. As the technology to improve the spacing between aircraft, fly more direct, and hold less often improves, the carbon emissions will naturally decrease using any aircraft or fuel type.

One example of this using current systems is a product I wrote about earlier called Flyways AI. This innovative technology continually assesses the weather and traffic on air routes and suggests flight plan updates that can save both time and fuel. We’re all used to this in our cars when we use Google Maps or Waze. This is a creative way to save on emissions with no underlying change in the air traffic infrastructure. Making structural changes can do much more, however, and as the country looks to update our roads and bridges, we need to think about our air roads and bridges as well.

Carbon Offsetting And Capture

While a single initiative because neither actually actually reduces the amount of emissions produced, offsetting and capture are two different strategies. Offsetting means investing in emissions-savings projects to net-out, or offset, carbon produced in the business’ primary operations. This accepts that the airplane is producing emissions, but finds other projects that save at least some equivalent of that output. This is something we can do in our own lives, and some airlines are already aggressively addressing this form of sustainability. You can fly JetBlue or Delta today and have 100% of the carbon emissions from your flight offset.

Carbon Capture is a technology to actually capture the carbon as it is created and trapping it so that it can be used productively rather than float into the atmosphere. This is better than carbon offsetting, because the emissions produced by the airplane would never enter the atmosphere but instead be captured for other industrial use. These two initiatives collectively make up a smaller part of the full sustainability plan. This makes sense given that all the others are about actually reducing the emissions rather than better controlling them.

Disruptive Technologies

This category represents the most exciting initiative — creating an airplane that produces no carbon emissions at all. The leading candidate for this is the idea of a hydrogen-powered aircraft. When I first heard of this concept, my thoughts went to the fact that the word most commonly following “hydrogen” is “bomb”. This is actually part of the technology needed to make this idea work. Namely, how to create, store, and deliver the hydrogen in a safe and effective manner.

Airbus has targeted 2035 as a date to make this plane a reality. Boeing is also working on this, and finding ways to make this fuel source practical and deliverable is the longer pole in the tent, as compared with designing a plane to run on the gas. Yet knowing today there are engineers, scientists, and leaders thinking about this is as exciting as a future manned mission to Mars. It’s much more practical, too, as economies need people and goods to move freely so finding a way to do this that doesn’t damage the planet is a real win for society.

This plan is ambitious but realistic. It recognizes that reaching sustainability for an industry so reliant today on fossil fuels can become fully sustainable only through a range of focused initiatives. Given that the industry and its suppliers are actively working on all of these ideas, I’m optimistic about a sustainable aviation future.