Agriculture: WASDE expectations – ING

The USDA will release its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Tuesday. The market expects the agency to cut its estimate of US corn ending stocks by around 22m bushels to 1,518m bushels. Soybean ending stocks could be left unchanged at 380m bushels, ING’s commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. 

Sentiment remains negative amid ongoing trade tensions

“Wheat could see a marginal uptick in ending stock estimates to 799m bushels. Also, the agency may revise downward its Argentine corn and soybean output estimates to 49.3mt (-0.7mt) and 48.9mt (-0.1mt), respectively. There’s the potential for Brazilian soybean output to be revised slightly higher (+0.5mt to 169.5mt). Global ending stock estimates for corn are expected to decline from 290.3mt to 289.9mt, while soybean ending stock estimates are seen rising to 124.6mt from 124.3mt.”

“Recent numbers from France’s Agriculture Ministry show that 74% of the soft wheat crop was in good-to-excellent condition as of 3 March. This compares to 73% over the preceding week and 68% for the same period last year. Warmer-than-usual weather has been helpful for the wheat crop.”

“The latest CFTC data suggests sentiment remains negative amid ongoing trade tensions. Money managers increased their net short position in CBOT wheat by 14,785 lots, to 82,399 lots as of 4 March. For CBOT corn, the net speculative long fell by 117,702 lots to 219,752 lots. Meanwhile, money managers shifted to a net short in CBOT soybeans after selling 43,696 lots over the week, leaving them with a net short of 35,487 lots.”