After Wild Winter Of Spending, National League Clubs Contend For Six Spots In Baseball Post-Season

Any minute now, the New York Mets could become baseball’s first $500 million team. They’re probably just a free agent away from vaulting over a half-billion dollars in expenses: $382 million in payroll and $109 million in luxury tax payments, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

Paying players $100 million more than the crosstown Yankees – the next biggest spender – doesn’t concern Steve Cohen, the billionaire hedge-fund magnate starting his third year as owner of the Mets. A team executive who’s a true fan, he just wants to win.

His team won 101 times last year but lost still didn’t win the National League East, owned by the Atlanta Braves for five years in a row. It’s the longest active streak in baseball but one Cohen is determined to derail.

After an extensive winter spending spree, his roster features the two highest-paid players in the majors – pitching aces Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at $43.3 million each – but is also sandbagged by age. Verlander turns 40 next week and Scherzer hits 39 in July. While both still seem solid, neither is likely to add a fourth Cy Young award anytime soon.

A teammate who might take the trophy is Edwin Diaz, whose five-year, $102 million extension made him the highest-paid closer in baseball history. Diaz is not only coming off his best season [32 saves, 1.31 ERA, 118 strikeouts in 62 innings] but is one of the few Mets on the sunny side of 30.

Even Kodai Senga, plucked out of the Japanese majors for $75 million, hit 30 in January. And fellow signees Jose Quintana, David Robertson, and Adam Ottavino are considerably older. So are position players Jeff McNeil, Eduardo Escobar, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Omar Narvaez.

One of the oldest teams in the majors last year, the Must-Win-Now 2003 Mets are even older. In fact, 28-year-old first baseman Pete Alonso (40 homers last year) is the only regular under 30.

Fortunately for manager Buck Showalter, the NL’s second-oldest manager, there are some promising prospects in good-hit, no-field catcher Francisco Alvarez, who could wind up as a DH, and Brett Baty, a lefty-hitting third baseman who hit his first two big-league homers in September.

The league’s oldest manager actually runs the league’s youngest team. Under Brian Snitker, now 67, the Atlanta Braves matched the Mets with 101 wins, including all three in a weekend sweep that gave the team a 10-9 advantage over New York in the season’s series.

With the exception of left-fielder Eddie Rosario, all Atlanta starters – including the top three pitchers – are under 30, with most signed to long-term contracts.

The Braves are banking on big comebacks from former All-Stars Ronald Acuña, Jr. and Ozzie Albies, who could join Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and 2022 Rookie of the Year Michael Harris II as 30-homer men.

Acuña and Harris both will benefit from this year’s limits on pick-offs and shifts plus the introduction of bigger bases, which shortens the distance for base-stealers.

Riley’s $212 million contract is the biggest in the history of the Braves, who prefer player development to signing free agents. Their $3 million dip into the market during the winter was the lowest in the majors – and left a void at shortstop when Gold Glover Dansby Swanson left for greener pastures (seven years and $177 million with the Cubs). Vaughn Grissom, 22, takes over.

Atlanta has potent pitching in starters Max Fried, Kyle Wright, and Spencer Strider plus closer Raisel Iglesias and a competent set-up crew. Wright led the majors with 21 wins while Fried was runner-up for the NL’s Cy Young Award.

After winning the pennant via the wild-card route, the Philadelphia Phillies hope they can make life easier by capturing the NL East title. But two-time MVP Bryce Harper will be out til June after Tommy John surgery, creating a void that places pressure on Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, Nick Castellanos, and free-agent signee Trea Turner (11 years, $300 million).

The Phils beefed up their once-beleaguered bullpen with Craig Kimbrel and Gregory Soto while ex-Met Taijuan Walker boosts an all-righty rotation headed by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler.

Miami’s best player is pitcher Sandy Alcatara, coming off a season that culminated in a Cy Young Award after a personal peak in innings pitched. But rookie pilot Skip Schumaker, replacing Don Mattingly, will have the same old problems: not enough offense or defense.

Even the acquisition of AL batting champ Luis Arraez and former Phillie Jean Segura won’t help, since both moves hurt a defense that now has multiple players, including All-Star Jazz Chisholm, Jr., in new positions. At least Johnny Cueto adds experience to the young pitching staff.

The Washington Nationals were a lock to be Least in the East even before erstwhile ace Stephen Strasburg went on the shelf this week with further thoracic outlet issues. The Nats, who also lost Nelson Cruz and Luke Voit to free agency, signed ex-Mets Dom Smith and Trevor Williams this winter but could still erase the 2022 club record for losses in a season (107).

With six teams able to qualify for the playoffs, it’s almost a given that the same three NL East clubs who made it last year will return. But what about the other three?

One will certainly be the Los Angeles Dodgers, whose projected Opening Day payroll of $216.3 million would rank fifth in the majors, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Mookie Betts, still a strong candidate to add a National League MVP award to bookend his 2018 American League trophy, leads a robust attack that also features Freddie Freeman, rated the league’s best hitter in a 2022 Baseball America poll of managers.

The Dodgers led the majors in runs scored, finished with a club-record 111 wins, and also allowed the fewest runs to opponents, thanks mainly to stingy starters Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, and Julio Urias.

Los Angeles won the NL West by 22 games over San Diego but the wild-card Padres went all the way to the Championship Series before losing to the red-hot Phillies in five games.

This year, the Friars will be tougher, thanks to the April 20 return of suspended slugger Fernando Tatís, Jr. and the signing of Xander Bogaerts (10 years, $280 million). Tatís, shifting from shortstop to right field, and Manny Machado, the MVP runner-up last year, have even bigger contracts.

Juan Soto, acquired from Washington last summer, could top them all when he reaches free agency this fall. Machado will also hit the market after exercising an opt-out clause in his $300 million contract, as he said this week that he will do.

Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Michael Wacha, and lefty Blake Snell head a packed rotation backed by lights-out closer Josh Hader. That might be enough to earn the Padres – the surprise West Coast version of the free-spending Mets – their first pennant since 1998.

In comparison, San Francisco doesn’t seem like much of a threat. The Giants missed the playoffs last year, lost serious bids for Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa, and added only rehabbing Michael Conforto (two years, $62 million), Mitch Haniger (three years, $43.5 million), and Luke Jackson, all recuperating from injuries, and Taylor Rogers, whose identical twin Tyler shares the same bullpen.

The Giants spent $200 million in signing seven free agents but it won’t help much.

Arizona hasn’t won a pennant since 2001, when the Diamondbacks also won their only world championship. Fourth last year and 37 games behind the Dodgers, they tried to close the gap by acquiring blue-chip catching prospect Gabriel Moreno, veterans Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. and Evan Longoria, and former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis.

Christian Walker, a surprise slugger with 36 homers, gets a big boost from speed-plus-power prospect Corbin Carroll. The D’backs also have a strong 1-2 pitching punch in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.

Colorado, on the other hand, has the handicap of playing home games in the alpine air of Coors Field, a park pitchers hate. They finished 43 games behind in their first cellar season since 2015.

The Rockies still thrill fans with a photogenic ballpark plus a lineup led by former MVP Kris Bryant, injured much of last year; fellow veteran slugger Charlie Blackmon; and C.J. Cron, who led last year’s team in homers and runs batted in. But the pitching was pathetic except for closer Daniel Bard, who somehow managed to save 34 games, win six others, and craft an impressive 1.79 ERA.

In the Central Division, the defending champion St. Louis Cardinals finished seven games up on the Milwaukee Brewers but then lost Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina to retirement. The Cards quickly inked NL All-Star Willson Contreras (five years, $87.5 million) but failed to boost a pitching staff headed by ancient Adam Wainwright, pushing 40, and Miles Mikolas. Much depends on lefty Jordan Montgomery and a return to form by erstwhile ace Jack Flaherty.

National League MVP Paul Goldschmidt led the 2022 Cards in all three Triple Crown categories and supplied strong defense at first base. Across the diamond, Nolan Arenado had 30 homers, 103 RBI, and his ninth straight Gold Glove. He’s the reason rookie Jordan Walker is moving to the outfield.

William Contreras, brother of the new St. Louis backstop, is one of three additions (along with Jesse Winker and Brian Anderson) made by Milwaukee, which sabotaged a strong starting rotation last year with a puny attack. But the Brewers opened a gaping bullpen hole by swapping Josh Hader to San Diego last summer and angered starter Corbin Burnes this week during his arbitration hearing (the team won the battle but may have lost the war).

Don’t be surprised if the Chicago Cubs leap-frog toward the top of the NL Central after spending some $300 million on free agents Cody Bellinger, Dansby Swanson, Trey Mancini, Jameson Taillon, and Brad Boxberger, among others.

Bellinger, a former MVP in search of a comeback, and Swanson, a Gold Glove winner and All-Star with Atlanta last year, should find the friendly confines of Wrigley Field especially inviting. The team still needs a closer, however.

Neither the Cincinnati Reds nor Pittsburgh Pirates will be factors, though both have some promising young players. They rank 26th and 27th, respectively, in payroll, according to Cot’s Contracts, and no other NL teams pay their players less.

Although the Pirates shelled out $5 million to bring back former MVP Andrew McCutchen, his best days are behind him. Look for both clubs to be sellers at or before the Aug. 1 trade deadline [free agent signee Wil Myers should be a great trade chip for the Reds].

With baseball betting nearly universal these days, here’s an educated guess as to how NL teams will finish:

East Division – 1. Braves, 2. Mets, 3. Phillies, 4. Marlins, 5. Nationals

Central Division – 1. Cubs, 2. Brewers, 3. Cardinals, 4. Reds, 5. Pirates

West Division – 1. Padres, 2. Dodgers, 3. Diamondbacks, 4. Giants, 5. Rockies

Wild Card Series – Phillies over Cubs; Mets over Dodgers; Byes for Braves, Padres

Division Series – Braves over Phillies; Padres over Mets

Championship Series – Braves over Padres

World Series – Braves over Yankees