After Sixers’ Playoff Collapse, All Eyes Turn To James Harden’s Future

The Philadelphia 76ers’ season came to an end Sunday, as the Boston Celtics beat them 112-88 in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Celtics will now advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, where they’ll face the Miami Heat, while the Sixers must now start to sift through the wreckage of yet another lost season.

That begins with figuring out whether James Harden has a long-term future in Philadelphia.

Back on Christmas Day, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported Harden was “seriously considering a return to the Houston Rockets in free agency” if he decided not to re-sign with the Sixers. Wojnarowski added that “Harden and his inner circle” had been “openly weighing Houston in recent months,” and those rumors have only grown louder since.

In early March, Sam Amick and Kelly Iko of The Athletic confirmed the Rockets were “widely expected” to pursue Harden if (when) he declines his $35.6 million player option for the 2023-24 season to become a free agent. “Even more surprisingly, sources with knowledge of Harden’s outlook say he’s as serious about a possible return now as he was when he left town” in a January 2021 trade to the Brooklyn Nets, they reported.

Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports recently reported that many figures around the NBA are treating Harden’s return to Houston “as a foregone conclusion.” However, others think “it’s all leverage to hold over the Sixers’ decision-makers,” which Wojnarowski also acknowledged as a possibility.

After three straight seasons toward the bottom of the NBA’s standings, the Rockets have made it clear that they’re ready to expedite their rebuild and get back into playoff contention. Armed with a league-high $64.2 million in projected salary-cap space this offseason, the Rockets have enough room to fit Harden on a max deal beginning at $46.9 million without needing to negotiate a sign-and-trade with the Sixers.

Losing Harden to the Rockets in free agency would be a devastating setback for the Sixers, who acquired him last February for Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, Andre Drummond and two future first-round picks. They already have $117.1 million in guaranteed salary on their books for next season, so they won’t have enough salary-cap space to adequately replace him if he does walk.

With Paul Reed (restricted), Shake Milton, Georges Niang and trade-deadline acquisition Jalen McDaniels all set to become free agents as well, the Sixers are likely to operate as an over-the-cap team this offseason regardless of what Harden decides to do. If Harden walks, they’d be limited to the $12.2 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception as their primary means to sign an impact player in free agency.

Harden led the NBA with 10.7 assists per game this season to go along with 21.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.8 made three-pointers and 1.2 steals. He’s a major reason why Joel Embiid averaged a league-high 33.1 points per game en route to his first Most Valuable Player award. There’s no other player like him set to become a free agent this summer, particularly one who would settle for an annual salary in the low teens.

Since the Sixers have Harden’s Bird rights, they would normally be able to offer one extra year on his contract than any other team. However, the Over-38 rule limits them to offering no more than the value of a four-year max deal spread out across either four or five years. In other words, their max offer tops out at roughly $210.1 million, while other teams can offer him a four-year deal worth $201.4 million. The lack of state income taxes in Texas alone could help Harden make up the difference between signing with the Rockets and re-signing with the Sixers.

If Harden is intent on signing with the Rockets and they’re willing to offer him a full four-year max deal, there may be nothing that the Sixers can do. The Rockets aren’t likely to agree to a sign-and-trade, either. If they’re hoping to package some of their young lottery picks for a second star, as Fischer recently reported, they’ll need their bigger contracts for salary-matching fodder. (The circumstances surrounding Daryl Morey’s departure from Houston might not have Rockets governor Tilman Fertitta in a hurry to help him out of a jam, either.)

If the Rockets aren’t willing to give Harden a four-year max, though, the Sixers might be able to significantly outbid them. However, they’ll need to consider the draconian penalties for the expensive teams under the new collective bargaining agreement when weighing how much to offer Harden this summer.

The new CBA introduces a second salary-cap apron set $17.5 million above the luxury-tax line. Beginning this offseason, teams above that threshold won’t have access to the taxpayer mid-level exception and will be limited to taking back no more than 110 percent of the salary they send out in any trade. The following summer, they’ll be limited in which draft picks they can trade away, won’t be able to aggregate salaries for a higher-paid player in a trade, can’t send cash in trades or “receive players on existing contracts by sign-and-trading their own free agents,” according to Yossi Gozlan of HoopsHype.

If the Sixers sign Harden to a max contract, they’d be over the luxury-tax threshold with only eight players under contract. Once they re-sign any of Reed, Milton, Niang and McDaniels and round out the rest of their roster, they’d likely be above the second apron, which would limit the tweaks they could make around Harden, Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.

Unless Harden is willing to stay in Philly on another team-friendly deal like he did last year, there may be no easy answer for the Sixers in these negotiations. He was a huge factor in their success this past season and almost single-handedly carried them in Games 1 and 4 against the Celtics, but he also shot at or below 25 percent overall in five playoff games.

With Harden turning 34 in May, it’s reasonable to wonder how he’ll be looking toward the tail end of a contract in which he’d be earning nearly $60 million in the final year. If teams get more averse to handing out gigantic contracts under the new CBA in fear of the second apron, the final year or two of Harden’s contract could come back to haunt the Sixers.

Then again, so could letting Harden walk. They might be able to finagle their way into another star in 2024 after Tobias Harris’ massive contract expires, but they’d be risking a gap year during Embiid’s prime in the meantime. It’s fair to wonder how much patience he’d have with a retool if the Sixers didn’t find an adequate Harden replacement within the next year or so.

The rest of the Sixers’ offseason direction will likely hinge directly on Harden’s decision. How they deal with the fallout of that decision either way will determine whether they remain in the championship hunt next season or take a step back.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.