After Historic Season Can Connor Hellebuyck Shake Playoff Cold Streak?

Connor Hellebuyck delivered one of the most dominant regular seasons by a goaltender in recent NHL history. In 2024-2025 he led the league in GAA (goals against average) and total wins and ranked second in save percentage trailing only Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz. Hellebuyck’s incredible season has earned him a spot as a finalist for this year’s Hart Trophy. This is the first time since the 2021-2022 that a goaltender has been named a finalist for the NHL’s MVP award. Despite his regular season accolades and success, Hellebuyck has struggled in the playoffs and was even pulled from several games this postseason. With Canadian teams hoping to end their Stanley Cup drought, it is critical Hellebuyck play his best.

Hellebuyck’s Playoff Struggles Continue

Despite Connor Hellebuyck’s elite regular-season metrics, the Jets’ goaltender’s postseason track record continues to show a pronounced decline. Over the past three seasons, he has averaged a 2.30 GAA during the regular season. In the playoffs, that figure rises sharply to 4.05, representing a consistent increase of more than one additional goal allowed per 60 minutes of play in the postseason.

The disparity is equally evident in save percentage. Hellebuyck has posted a regular-season average of .922 over that span, yet his postseason save percentage falls to .869. Notably, this decline has occurred even as his regular-season performance has steadily improved, suggesting that the playoff drop-off is not a result of overall skill regression.

This persistent gap has reignited broader discussions within hockey analytics circles about the validity of performance momentum in the postseason and whether perceived “hot” or “cold” streaks are indicative of actual changes in goaltending ability or simply statistical variance influenced by context.

Goaltending Hot Hand Fallacy

A recent study published in the Journal of Sports Analytics, challenges the belief that goaltenders can become “hot” during the playoffs. The researchers analyzed more than 48,000 shots from nine NHL postseasons between 2008 and 2016. Using multilevel logistic regression models, they evaluated whether recent performance, measured across various shot-based windows, predicted a goaltender’s likelihood of stopping the next shot.

They found no evidence to support the hot-hand effect. In one model, recent success was actually associated with a lower probability of saving the next shot. This pattern held across all performance windows and was validated through permutation testing.

The authors suggest that goaltenders coming off poor stretches may respond with increased focus, while those performing well may experience subtle declines in intensity. These findings challenge the assumption that momentum alone drives sustained success in net.

In the case of Connor Hellebuyck, whose playoff results have consistently trailed his regular-season standards, the study indicates that perceived cold streaks are possibly the result of statistical variance rather than a loss of form. This reinforces the importance of evaluating playoff performance in a broader tactical and structural context rather than relying on short-term trends.

Implications for Hellebuyck’s Playoff Performance

For Hellebuyck, the recurring gap between regular-season excellence and postseason struggles may not reflect a decline in skill or preparedness. Instead, it points to the broader realities of playoff hockey, where outcomes are influenced by factors such as team defensive structure, shot quality against, and cumulative fatigue.

For teams aiming to end Canada’s Stanley Cup drought, consistent postseason success is more likely to come from systemic strength than from relying on the perceived momentum of a single player, regardless of regular-season accolades.