Adding Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks May Be Only Step 1 For The Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets have made two of the biggest splashes of 2023 NBA free agency thus far.

The Rockets agreed to sign Fred VanVleet to a three-year, $128.5 million max contract with a third-year team option, according to Jackson Gatlin of Locked on Rockets. They’re also bringing in former Memphis Grizzlies instigator Dillon Brooks to a four-year, $80 million deal with a descending annual salary, according to multiple reports.

Beyond VanVleet and Brooks, the Rockets also came to terms with Jock Landale on a four-year, $32 million contract with only the first year guaranteed, per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. They’re bringing in Jeff Green on a one-year, $6 million deal as well, according to HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto.

Along with the additions of No. 4 overall pick Amen Thompson and No. 20 pick Cam Whitmore—who was widely projected to go in the top 10 before a surprising draft-night tumble—arguably no team has added more talent this offseason than the Rockets (non-Victor Wembanyama division). We’ve already begun to see the fallout of those additions, though.

The Rockets are trading recent first-round picks TyTy Washington Jr. and Usman Garuba along with two second-round picks and $1.1 million in cash to the Atlanta Hawks for the draft rights of Alpha Kaba, according to Lauren L. Williams of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Jeff Schultz of The Athletic said the Rockets were making this trade for “cap-space purposes,” presumably to fit in all four of their newcomers both in terms of salary and roster spots.

Neither Washington (No. 29 in 2022) nor Garuba (No. 23 in 2021) projected to be a major factor in the Rockets’ rotation this coming season if even the team didn’t go on a free-agent spending spree. It’s too early to say whether either was a major whiff in terms of opportunity cost—no one drafted behind them has flashed star upside—but they demonstrate the often-diminishing returns on late first-round picks.

The Rockets will have far higher-stakes decisions to make in the next few years, though. Next offseason, Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun will become eligible to sign extensions. The following summer, Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason will join them. Figuring out which of their veterans and which of their young core profile as long-term keepers will be among their top priorities in 2023-24.

Because with the VanVleet and Brooks contracts, the Rockets might have officially put themselves back into the superstar trade market.

In Green, Smith and Thompson, the Rockets now have three recent top-five picks, all of whom play different positions. Sengun, whom they selected 16th in 2021, has flashes of Nikola Jokic to his game, while Eason and Whitmore could cement themselves as quality members of a supporting cast at worst. All six should have positive trade value and should particularly intrigue teams that are entertaining a rebuild after they trade away their star.

The Rockets owe their top-four-protected 2024 and 2026 first-round picks to the Oklahoma City Thunder, so they had no reason to continue tanking this upcoming season. However, they also have fully unprotected 2024 and 2026 first-round picks from the Brooklyn Nets along with 2025 and 2027 first-round pick swaps and a host of additional second-round picks over the next four years. Those could serve as sweeteners in any trade down the road.

Leading into free agency, Kelly Iko of The Athletic hinted that the Rockets would try to pursue big-money, short-term contracts to maintain flexibility moving forward, particularly on the trade market.

“If you offer more money and less years, not only does it give the players some flexibility in terms of—I think those days are gone where you want to see players tied down for four or five years,” Iko said. “Players want freedom of movement. And so, a two-year deal gives a player, like, if I don’t like it after year one—if you sign a 1-and-1 and I don’t like it after one season, I can just walk. And also, for the Rockets, an aggressive team in the marketplace, he’s a good enough player where if something goes wrong, you can move off that contract.”

The Rockets’ free-agent signings won’t be eligible to be traded until Dec. 15, so they can’t start bidding on stars immediately. With VanVleet and Thompson in the fold, it wouldn’t make sense for them to go after the soon-to-be 33-year-old Damian Lillard anyway, and they already passed up their chance for a reunion with James Harden in free agency. But if we’ve learned anything about the NBA in recent years, it’s that the next disgruntled star is always right around the corner.

If the Philadelphia 76ers fumble the Harden trade, could Joel Embiid soon develop a wandering eye? What happens with Giannis Antetokounmpo when he becomes extension-eligible in September? Or, perhaps more importantly, what if the Milwaukee Bucks flame out of the playoffs earlier than expected again? What happens with Luka Doncic if the Dallas Mavericks’ gambit on Kyrie Irving goes bust?

In the meantime, the additions of VanVleet, Brooks, Green and Landale should bolster a team that has won 57 games over the past three seasons combined. The Rockets pledged to splurge on veterans to expedite their rebuild, and they lived up to their promise. It’s a reach to put them anywhere near the top of the Western Conference, but they should at least be in the play-in mix now.

How they navigate the next year or two will be the real challenge. It could go a long way toward determining whether their post-Harden rebuild creates the foundation of a championship contender or if it was all for naught.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.