Adding A First Baseman Should Be On San Diego Padres Shopping List

The San Diego Padres didn’t come close to catching the Los Angeles Dodgers this past season, finishing 22 games behind them in the National League West.

Now, as baseball enters the offseason, the Padres will look to shore up an offense that hit for a batting average of .241, just below the MLB league average of .243.

The Padres could be in the hunt to find additional offensive firepower to support the hitting efforts of All star quality players Manny Machado and Juan Soto. Hopefully, they’ll get a healthy Fernando Tatis Jr. back to play either shortstop or in the outfield.

Certainly, a healthy Tatis Jr. will do wonders for the Padres offense.

But they may still need more offensive firepower.

The Padres hit 153 home runs last season, once again putting them below the MLB average of 174 homers.

In comparison, the Dodgers, the team they continue to try to chase down, hit 212 home runs, finishing fifth in baseball in that category.

The Padres scored 705 runs, compared to 847 for the Dodgers, creating a huge gap in that important offensive category.

The Padres might be looking to the free agent or trade markets to add a power hitting, run producing first baseman.

If the season were to start tomorrow, fangraphs.com lists their first baseman to be the versatile, left-handed hitting, Jake Cronenworth.

Cronenworth, 28, was a 7th round selection of the Tampa Bay Rays in the 2015 June Amateur Draft. In December 2019, he was traded to the Padres in a multiple player deal.

Cronenworth played second base, shortstop, first base and served as the team’s designated hitter at various points in the 2022 season.

Cronenworth, a National League All Star the past two seasons, has been a consequential player for the Padres for all three years of his big league career.

Last season, Cronenworth hit .239/.332/.390/.722 with 17 home runs and 88 RBIs. He scored 88 runs.

First Base Options:

On August 2, 2022, the Padres traded veteran first baseman Eric Hosmer to the Boston Red Sox, leaving a rather glaring hole at first base.

On the same day they traded Hosmer to Boston, the Padres also received switch-hitting first baseman Josh Bell in their trade with the Washington Nationals that featured left-handed hitting All Star Juan Soto coming to San Diego.

Bell hit for a dismal .192 batting average with the Padres, which included three home runs and 14 RBIs in his 210 plate appearances. It was clearly less production than the Padres expected.

Josh Bell is now a free agent, meaning Cronenworth is the current heir apparent to the role.

Brandon Drury also played some at first base for the Padres. He didn’t set the world on fire, and is now a free agent himself. It is doubtful the Padres will sign him.

Now, needing a jolt to their offense, the Padres may wish to consider trading for, or signing a first baseman as a free agent.

With slugger Anthony Rizzo off the market after he returned to the New York Yankees on a new contract, the first base free agent class is rather slim.

Jose Abreu-Age 34 (free agent)

The Chicago White Sox have not made a concerted effort to sign their team leader, and “RBI Machine” Jose Abreu to a new contract.

In fact, it looks like Abreu is content to see what the open market will bring.

The Chicago Cubs have expressed interest in bringing Abreu from the South to the North side of Chicago to play in Wrigley Field.

However, Abreu, a right-handed hitter, might find a home in San Diego.

His home run total fell by 50% this past season, as he went from 30 to just 15 home runs in 679 plate appearances, 20 more than in 2021. However, Abreu still drove in 75 runs, which is a total the Padres could use. However, his RBIs decreased as well, from 117 the previous season.

Abreu hit for a .304 batting average, which was an improvement of 43 points from 2021. He made better contact this past season, striking out less and walking a bit more.

Abreu is an average defender at first base, and his presence would allow Cronenworth to fill a void at another defensive position while bringing potentially more offense to the lineup.

Rhys Hoskins-Age 29 (Philadelphia Phillies trade target)

Right-handed hitting first baseman Rhys Hoskins may be made available by the Philadelphia Phillies.

At 6-4, 245 pounds, Hoskins hit 30 home runs for the Phillies last season. He drove in 79 runs in 672 plate appearances.

A streaky hitter, Hoskins struck out 169 times. But he hit 33 doubles and scored 81 runs for the Phillies team that went deeply into the 2022 postseason.

The availability of Hoskins could improve if the Phillies are successful in landing one of the better free agent shortstops. That would allow them to move Bryson Stott to third base and Alex Bohm to first, which may be the best defensive positions for both Stott and Bohm.

Hoskins was paid $7.7M by the Phillies last year, and he will be in his last year of arbitration this offseason.

C.J. Cron-Age 32 (Colorado Rockies trade target)

Right-handed hitting C.J. Cron is 6-4, 235 pounds. He was an All Star for the Rockies this past season.

Cron hit 29 homers for Colorado in 2021, but 22 were at home.

He drove in 102 runs, but 75 were at home.

The problem? Cron’s home and road splits are as vast as the Grand Canyon.

The splits are also telling regarding Cron’s home and road batting average. He hit a robust .303 at home, but only .214 on the road.

As is the case with many Rockies hitters, the road environments outside of Coors Field in Denver pose a huge challenge. And of course, 81 games are played away from home.

Now, if he were to be in San Diego, what would his new home park do for his overall power production? Consider that 1,504 home runs were hit in Denver’s Coors Field. At Petco Park in San Diego, 1,000 balls left the park. Petco would quite probably have a negative impact on Cron’s production.

Still, C.J. Cron might be an asset to the Padres, albeit not in the same class as Abreu or Hoskins.

Cody Bellinger-Age 27 (free agent)

Cody Bellinger was not tendered a contract by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

There are reports the Dodgers may bring him back at less than his anticipated $18M arbitration salary.

The left-handed hitting Bellinger is 6-4, 213 pounds.

For his first three years with the Dodgers, Bellinger was a consequential part of their lineup.

He hit 39, 25 and 47 home runs in those three seasons, and was the National League 2017 Rookie of the Year.

Bellinger made the 2017 and 2019 National League All Star teams.

Few players have declined as steeply and as rapidly as Bellinger in a short, three year period.

After hitting just .165 in 2021, Bellinger finished this past year at .210/.265/‘.389/.654 with 19 home runs and 68 RBIs in 550 plate appearances. One should not dismiss those 19 home runs. He still has power-when he makes contact. But he struck out 150 times.

During the 2020 National League Championship Series, Bellinger dislocated his right shoulder during a home run celebration. He required surgery to repair the damage. Frankly, Bellinger has not been close to the same hitter since his shoulder injury.

Even in decline, Bellinger is still in the prime years of his career. He may be a solid come back candidate for a club like the Padres who are looking for a power spark at first base.

Conclusions:

RosterResource.com estimates the Padres 2023 payroll will be $213M, down $1M from the estimate of this past season.

The Padres potential starting rotation is solid, including:

RHP Yu Darvish

LHP Blake Snell

RHP Joe Musgrove

RHP Nick Martinez

LHP Adrian Morejon

Their offense can use a boost to help score more runs.

Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. are impactful, All Star quality hitters.

It now seems feasible that the Padres will seek to shore up their offensive production at first base, moving potential first baseman Jake Cronenworth somewhere else on the diamond.

But options for a new face at first base seem few and far between. There aren’t many game-changing free agent first baseman on the market. Trading for an upgrade is an option.

The next few weeks could help shape the Padres offense as they prepare to make up the 22 games they trailed the incumbent National League West Champion Los Angeles Dodgers.