Adani Stock Rout Resumes as MSCI Says It’s Reviewing Free Float

(Bloomberg) — Adani Group stocks slipped in early trading, ending a two-day reprieve, after MSCI Inc. said it was reviewing the amount of shares linked to the group that were freely tradable in public markets.

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Investors also sold after French energy giant TotalEnergies SE put a multi-billion dollar plan to produce green hydrogen with the group on hold pending audits. A number of banks were said to have balked at refinancing some of the conglomerate’s debt following the rout sparked by short-seller Hindenburg Research’s report. That has prompted a plan by the group to prepay a $500 million bridge loan due next month, Bloomberg News reported.

Nine of the group’s 10 stocks declined Thursday, with flagship Adani Enterprises Ltd. plunging as much as 20% before paring the bulk of its losses. That follows a 35% jump over the previous two sessions. The group’s market value has fallen sharply over the past two weeks after US-based Hindenburg published the critical report on Jan. 24, with losses at one point reaching $117 billion.

“Any newsflow, be it positive or negative, can result into sharp stock movement, which we are witnessing,” said Vikas Gupta, chief investment strategist at OmniScience Capital in Mumbai. “With the kind of troubles the group is facing, there will be more scrutiny because ultimately funds or index companies are also responsible to their investors and will have to conduct their own assessment of the situation.”

MSCI’s review directs market attention back to a key allegation from US short-seller Hindenburg Research that offshore shell companies and funds tied to the Adani Group comprise many of the largest “public”, or non-insider, holders of Adani shares. The index provider said it will implement and announce any resultant changes affecting calculations of the so-called free float and market capitalization of group stocks when releasing its February index review scheduled later Thursday.

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Any decision by MSCI to cut its assessment of the number of Adani shares considered freely tradable or even remove the stocks from its indexes will likely trigger more selling in the group’s stocks.

“This is unmitigated bad news for the Adani Group companies and a lot of the gains made over the last couple of days could be wiped out today,” Brian Freitas, an analyst at Smartkarma, wrote in a note. “There will be BIG passive selling.”

The turmoil triggered by Hindenburg’s wide-ranging allegations of purported corporate malpractice — which Adani has repeatedly denied — eased over the past two days as the billionaire stepped up measures to reassure investors and banks by repaying loans and pledging to reduce debt ratios. The slump in the group’s dollar debt has attracted buyers such as Oaktree Capital Management and Davidson Kempner Capital Management.

Investors are likely to stay jittery over a renewed slide in shares due to concerns over the group’s access to funding. The fallout from the Adani tumult has extended beyond financial markets. India’s main opposition party has been drawing attention to the ties between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Gautam Adani and the tycoon’s meteoric growth that mirrors the leader’s rise to the top elected office.

When asked about the exposure to Adani stocks, Victoria Mio, head of equity research for Asia Pacific at Fidelity International said that in general, she stays away from companies with hefty valuations. “We are not hurt by recent events because these type of companies are not on our radar screen because of high valuations.”

–With assistance from Ishika Mookerjee.