Acquiring Carlos Santana To Start Trade Deadline Season Is A Low-Risk Move For The All-In Mariners

No one ever decreed that the first deal of the trade deadline season has to be a doozy. And thus the Mariners and Royals pulled off what looks like a simple trade Monday, when Seattle sent minor league pitchers William Fleming and Wyatt Mills to Kansas City in exchange for veteran first baseman Carlos Santana.

Frankly, given how both teams have performed in 2022, a case could be made this wasn’t the deal to actually start trade deadline season, which runs through Aug. 2 at 6 PM EST. At 35-41, the Mariners are 6 1/2 games out of the third wild card spot in the American League — and only 7 1/2 games ahead of the Royals, whose 26-47 record is tied for second-worst in the majors ahead of only the Athletics.

At first glance, the Mariners’ end of this deal looks like a classic Wilpon-era trade deadline move by the Mets, who were infamous for trying to chase a long-shot playoff bid by stockpiling past-their-prime veteran placeholders for the low cost of longshot low-level prospects.

While the Mariners need a stopgap solution at first base with potential All-Star Ty France sidelined due to a flexor strain in his left elbow, they’re probably not getting the Santana who was one of the most under-appreciated hitters in the majors from 2010 through 2019. Santana is hitting .211 with 31 homers, 120 RBIs and an OPS of .674 (14 percent below the league average) since 2020 after hitting .250 with 232 homers, 766 RBIs and an OPS of .817 (21 percent better than the league average) during the 2010s.

But despite their subpar record, the Mariners are in going-for-it mode this season. No team in the four major American pro sports leagues has a longer postseason drought than the Mariners, who haven’t reached the playoffs since setting a big league record with 116 wins in 2001.

The Mariners almost snapped that drought last season, when they won 19 of their final 30 games to finish 90-72 and two games behind the Yankees and Red Sox, who tied for the two wild card spots. While their negative-51 run differential suggested some overachievement in the final result — their Pythagorean record would have been 76-86 — the Mariners went all-in on a playoff push by signing reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray before the lockout and acquiring Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker from the dismantling Reds shortly after the CBA was ratified.

But despite breakout performances from France, Rookie of the Year frontrunner Julio Rodriguez and second-year starting pitcher Logan Gilbert, the Mariners have opened this season by following in the footsteps of the 2004 and 2008 clubs. Those teams lost 99 and 101 games, respectively, in the seasons after posting a winning record despite a negative run differential.

The Mariners’ struggles in 2004 cost manager Bob Melvin his job, while the tandem of general manager Bill Bavasi and skipper John McLaren were each shown the door during or after the 2008 season. It’s not much of a logical leap to figure president of baseball operations Jerry DiPoto and manager Scott Servais, who were hired within four weeks of one another following the 2015 season, could be in danger of meeting similar fates if the Mariners continue skidding.

So at the very least, acquiring Santana is the type of move a general manager makes in order to reassure his bosses he’s got a plan in place. Ray — who allowed one hit over seven innings Tuesday night and has a 0.67 ERA in his last four starts — is certainly helping DiPoto make a case that the Mariners are on the verge of finding their way, a la the Nationals in 2019 or the Braves in 2021.

The top-of-the-rotation trio of Ray, Gilbert and Marco Gonzales have a combined ERA of 3.19 while relievers Paul Sewald and Diego Castillo have produced 11 saves and 59 strikeouts in 54 2/3 innings. Even with France and catcher Cal Raleigh on the injured list, the Mariners have five everyday players with OPS+ north of 100 as well as Kyle Lewis (concussion) and Mitch Haniger (ankle) expected to return to action in July.

In addition, the Mariners have a run differential of negative-6, suggesting they’re a 37-39 team. A two-game difference doesn’t sound like a whole lot, but it’s more than enough for DiPoto to justify the Santana trade.

And if it doesn’t work out and the Mariners finish nowhere near a playoff spot? No one will remember how the 2022 trade deadline sweepstakes officially began, but ownership might have to remind DiPoto and Servais how the Mariners’ season ended.