Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani Lead Stellar Field Of AL MVP Candidates

The MLB season is roughly at the halfway point, so July would seem to be a good time to check in on the MVP and Cy Young Award races in both leagues, as well as overall team power rankings. I’ll be doing this utilizing the batted ball-based methods I typically employ here. Yesterday, we looked at the NL MVP race. Today, it’s the AL’s turn.

Quite honestly, the top of the AL MVP field far outshines its NL counterpart. The top three AL candidates, in my opinion, would all rank ahead of the current NL pacesetter, Dansby Swanson. And the top six AL candidates would all rank at least second in the NL. As in the NL, there are some players in the Honorable Mention category who are likely to receive legitimate consideration for the hardware. As usual, there are players that my batted ball-based evaluation method like better or worse than the mainstream baseball media. Let’s run down the top candidates as I see them, from the Honorable Mentions through the Top 5.

HONORABLE MENTION

How strong is the AL MVP field? Well, two of the game’s elite 3Bs, Rafael Devers and Jose Ramirez, are merely included in this group. Devers is my top player in this tier – he’d be tied for 4th in the NL field with Manny Machado. His numbers are propped up a bit by Fenway Park, largely due to its fly ball-friendly tendency (Devers has a 242 Unadjusted vs. 166 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score). Ramirez has a very unique offensive profile. His incredibly low K rate works in his favor, but an extreme pop up rate and ordinary batted ball authority work against him. He’s overperformed on all batted ball types (118 Uandjusted Fly Ball vs. 84 Adjusted Fly Ball, 144 vs. 99 Line Drive and 197 vs. 125 Ground Ball Contact Scores). His ability to selectively pull the ball in the air for distance carries him, but that doesn’t last forever. Either of those two could prevail in this race if their club makes a major second half move.

Don’t totally write off a pair of 1Bs from this race. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was a deserving runnerup last year, and though he hasn’t been quite the same in 2022, he’s within range of award contention. His fly ball rate has declined, with his average launch angle descending to 5.6 degrees, but he’s still marauding the baseball. He’s been quite unlucky in the air (178 Unadjusted vs. 242 Adjusted Contact Score) to date. If the White Sox climb back into the AL Central mix, Jose Abreu is likely to be a big reason why. He is very quietly having an excellent season, and he too has been a bit unlucky in the air (94 Unadjusted vs. 116 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score). He “should be” hitting .288-.374-.490 thus far, pretty impressive in this season’s offensive environment. Lastly, I just want to get Julio Rodriguez’ name into this mix. He’s on fire, and his ceiling is limitless.

THE X-FACTOR

RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani (Angels) – 10.1 “Tru” Runs Above Average, 9.7 “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average

So here I am trying to make an objective, mathematically ranked list of the top MVP candidates, and that’s simply impossible to do when this force of nature is involved. First off, the numbers above run only through Monday’s games and do not include Ohtani’s latest act of dominance on Wednesday evening. Just try to conjure up an image of a player who is materially above league average at the game’s two discrete core disciplines – hitting and pitching. He’d probably have defensive value as well if his club would let him give it a whirl. That 10.1 offensive figure above is net of his (-8.5) Baserunning/Defensive Value (per Fangraphs).

If I were to compare his value to replacement value rather than league average, he’d be the leader. This is where one’s objective ranking gets a bit more subjective. Last year, Ohtani felt like the MVP to me, despite Guerrero’s great season. If he keeps performing at the plate and on the mound like he did this June, Ohtani will deservedly win again. As things presently stand, however, there is one player who “feels” more like the current MVP to me.

THE TOP FIVE (exclusive of the X-Factor)

#5 – C Alejandro Kirk (Blue Jays) – 20.7 “Tru” Runs Above Average – What an interesting, unique player. Here we have a 5’8”, 245, catcher who plays his position quite well, never strikes out, hits the ball with authority in the air and on the ground, and who is not an extreme grounder-puller. I honestly can’t remember another player with all of those attributes, and Kirk has gotten to this point very early in his MLB career, at the tender age of 23.

Can he keep it up? It’s very difficult to tell. The temptation would be to find him a position where his offensive output would be better protected for the long haul, but that position would be first base, and it’s manned by Vladdy Jr.. In addition, mega-prospect Gabriel Moreno is currently backing him up, and laying in wait. At this point, the Jays will continue to alternate the two between C and DH, a pretty enviable situation.

#4 – CF Mike Trout (Angels) – 21.3 “Tru” Runs Above Average – Trout’s still in the upper tier of MLB players, but he’s morphed into a player with a much dicier risk/reward ratio. His carry tools are a high – I might say excessive – fly ball rate, and exceptional fly ball authority. His 258 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score trails only Ohtani (291) and #1 and 2 below.

On the flip side, he strikes out an awful lot, and is an extreme grounder-puller who invites infield overshifts. He’s been very fortunate on the ground to date, hitting .323 AVG-.355 SLG – and is still “only” batting .272. Bottom line, with his current offensive profile, there is an awful lot of batting average risk here. Trout is now a power-before-hit guy, not a hit-before-power guy, and that’s not a good development.

#3 – RF Kyle Tucker (Astros) – 22.4 “Tru” Runs Above Average – This one likely surprises you. Part of the reason he rates this high is his (+3.4) Baserunning/Defensive Value, which compares favorably to Trout (+0.2) and is right there with Kirk (+3.7). The rest of it is due to some truly bad luck Tucker has experienced on batted balls thus far this season.

His performance lags his projections in the air (134 Unadjusted vs. 154 Adjusted Contact Score), on a line (70 vs. 91) and on the ground (42 vs. 87). Overall, his 115 Unadjusted Contact Score substantially lags his adjusted 142 mark. Tucker “should be” batting .287-.378-.540 to date, and that’s good enough to make him a legit candidate.

#2 – DH Yordan Alvarez (Astros) – 23.8 “Tru” Runs Above Average – And here we have the best hitter in the AL to date, hands down. His “Tru” Runs figure above is independent of his (-6.4) Baserunning/Fielding Value to date. Alvarez has an exceptional K/BB profile for an elite hitter, and he also absolutely destroys the baseball.

His 284 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is second only to Ohtani in the AL, and he has mastered the art of elevating the baseball with solid frequency while rarely popping it up. Wrote about his ability to maximize good outcomes while minimizing bad ones here. One nitpick – he’s developed a bit of a grounder-pulling tendency, and is batting only .167 on the ground as a result. If he licks that, he’s a legit Triple Crown candidate.

#1 – RF Aaron Judge (Yankees) – 26.6 “Tru” Runs Above Average – There are a lot of reasons for the Yankees’ stellar first half, but Judge is the biggest, literally and figuratively. He hits the hardest fly balls in the league (98.4 mph average exit speed), with the 3rd highest Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score (278). He also hits more fly balls than Ohtani and Alvarez, the two ahead of him in the latter category, and like Alvarez, almost never pops up.

He hits his liners harder (101.0 mph average exit speed) than anyone but Guerrero Jr.. There’s a little more risk in his profile than in Alvarez’ (much higher strikeout rate, even more extreme grounder-pulling tendency), but measurable edges in thunder and Baserunning/Defensive Value (+0.2 runs) give him the overall edge. Ultimately, I think his biggest threat for the AL MVP hardware is a hard-charging Ohtani.

Next week, a look at the Cy Young Award races in both leagues.