Aaron Judge Must Emphasize Average Annual Value In Negotiations With New York Yankees

The New York Yankees have made it clear they are committed to presenting right fielder Aaron Judge with a proposal for a contract extension before Opening Day on April 7^th. If the Yankees and Judge cannot come to terms before the start of the 2022 season, the next option is far less desirable as it might involve settling their salary differences on a one-year contract in an arbitration hearing. The deadline to exchange salary figures was March 22^nd and the Yankees and Judge were apart by $4 million. As it is always prudent to avoid the dreaded arbitration hearing, the Yankees had offered $17 million while Judge felt comfortable at $21 million in his final year of arbitration eligibility.

It is mutually beneficial for the Yankees and Judge to continue their successful relationship. Even though there is a sincere interest by both parties to consummate a contract extension, it doesn’t mean the negotiations will be smooth and Judge will be spending the rest of his career in pinstripes. Both must remain open-minded when confronting difficult questions pertaining to a superstar ball player entering his age 30 season with an injury history.

Judge has sustained significant injuries throughout the course of his six seasons in the Bronx. Besides oblique and calf strains, Judge has persevered through a fractured rib and right wrist. He has experienced tremendous pain from a collapsed lung and arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder. Judge has played in 148 or more ball games in a season just twice (2017 and 2021) but has demonstrated when healthy, he is a legitimate candidate for the American League’s Most Valuable Player Award. In both of these seasons, Judge had finished second (2017) and fourth (2021) in the award voting.

Judge has been the epitome of class and dignity while developing into one of Major League Baseball’s finest ambassadors. Besides his extraordinary talent, Judge’s marketability extends well beyond the iconic brand of the Yankees. He is humble and professional in all interactions with the media. Judge’s kindness and philanthropic spirit is evident in all interactions with fans and his ALL RISE Foundation. He intimately understands what it means to be a Yankee and has embraced the enormous responsibilities of leadership in a high-pressure environment driven by impatience and lofty expectations.

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It is easy to become infatuated with Judge’s prolific power based on Statcast metrics, but there is far more to him than tape measure home runs, barrels, and triple digit exit velocities. Judge might appear to be one dimensional given his height and muscular physique, but he is not given enough credit for his defense in right field. According to FanGraphs, Judge’s right field defense has been outstanding in terms of defensive runs saved (DRS) and ultimate zone rating (UZR). Over the past six seasons, Judge has posted a 59 DRS and 33.4 UZR. Based on a minimum 4,000 innings played in right field over the 2016-2021 seasons, only Mookie Betts has a better DRS (111) than Judge while he trails Betts (78.6) and Jason Heyward (36.6) in terms of UZR.

In recent contract negotiations with ball players who have earned elite status within Major League Baseball, there has been an emphasis placed on an average annual value of at least $30 million. According to Spotrac, there are currently 14 ball players who have contracts with an average annual value of at least $30 million for the 2022 season. Excluding five pitchers, the highest average annual value for a position ball player belongs to center fielder Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels at $35,541,667 due to his 12-year, $426.5 million contract. The highest average annual value in Major League Baseball history belongs to pitcher Max Scherzer at $43,333,333 thanks to his three-year, $130 million contract with the New York Mets.

Presently, the Yankees only have one ball player with an average annual value over $30 million. Pitcher Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324 million contract has an average annual value of $36 million. The other ball player of distinction on the Yankees’ payroll is Giancarlo Stanton. The outfielder/designated hitter is under contract with the Yankees for six more seasons at $179 million plus a club option for the 2028 season at $25 million ($10 million buyout) according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Since Stanton didn’t opt out of his 13-year, $325 million contract at the conclusion of the 2020 season, the Miami Marlins are responsible for paying $30 million to the Yankees over the 2026-2028 seasons as per the terms of the December 2017 trade.

The structure of a contract extension for Judge will likely focus on two variables: average annual value and length of contract. Are the Yankees willing to pay Judge an average annual value of $35 million? If so, they could offer Judge a six-year, $210 million contract extension with an average annual value of $35 million which would run through his age 35 season. A contract of this structure would also coincide with the expiration of Stanton’s contract at the conclusion of the 2027 season unless the Yankees decide to pick up the $25 million club option for Stanton’s age 38 season.

Judge might have two magic numbers in mind: an average annual value of $35 million with an overall contract value of $250 million. A contract of this structure could be spread over seven years and produce an average annual value of $35,714,285. This would exceed Trout’s present average annual value and would be the highest in Major League Baseball for a position ball player. Also, the contract would expire at the conclusion of Judge’s age 36 season.

If the New York Yankees and Aaron Judge agree to a contract extension before Opening Day, it cannot be viewed as a consolation prize for failing to sign free agents such as Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, or Trevor Story this offseason. Judge is a cornerstone ball player who has rightfully earned a long-term contract with the Yankees based solely on performance and overall excellence. He embodies several endearing characteristics that have only been seen in iconic Yankees. Health, flexibility, and range of motion are important factors for Judge as he strives for consistency and that elusive world championship.