A Trey Lance Trade Makes Little Sense For The San Francisco 49ers

On Monday, John Lynch is scheduled to face the media ahead of the 2023 NFL Draft. The San Francisco 49ers do not have a pick until the third round, but the questions he faces at the press conference will most likely concern the same position as two years ago when the Niners had acquired the third overall pick.

Quarterback talk is sure to be the dominant topic most media members will want to discuss, after a report from NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport said the 49ers had fielded trade calls surrounding the man they selected third overall in 2021, Trey Lance.

Ahead of a draft in which none of the 49ers’ 11 picks could be considered ‘premium’ selections, the report has been interpreted by many as San Francisco shopping the quarterback whom they traded three first-round picks to acquire following the emergence of Brock Purdy down the stretch last season.

Purdy is widely regarded to be the preferred starter for San Francisco, having won seven successive games as a starter, including two playoff contests, to help the Niners to the NFC Championship Game last season as a seventh-round rookie after Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo both sustained season-ending injuries.

The argument for trading Lance is that, if Purdy is indeed now the preferred quarterback of head coach Kyle Shanahan, then the 49ers should recognize a sunk cost and get back whatever they can for a signal-caller in Lance who faces an uphill battle to convince his coach he should be the man to lead the offense.

Yet it is more difficult to make such a case when Purdy – who was second in Expected Points Added per play, per rbsdm.com, among quarterbacks with at least 100 plays over his five regular-season starts – is no guarantee to be ready for Week 1 as he recovers from surgery on the torn Ulnar Collateral Ligament (UCL) he suffered on the Niners’ first offensive series of the Conference Championship defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles.

There is no doubt Purdy, whose spell as starter saw the 49ers average a league-leading 33.6 points per game between Weeks 14 and 18 of the regular season, has earned the right to start full-time.

But with no concrete assurances over his health, it would be an undue risk to part with the man most likely to be his backup.

San Francisco does have veteran insurance in the form of Sam Darnold, the former third overall pick who went 4-2 in six games down the stretch for the Carolina Panthers and was eighth in EPA per play among quarterbacks between Weeks 12 and 18.

Shanahan may feel he can coax the best out of Darnold, and his offense should provide an ecosystem in which the former New York Jet can thrive if Purdy is not ready to play Week 1.

However, while the 49ers could certainly use the draft capital they would net in return for Lance, robbing him of an opportunity to show the upside that convinced San Francisco to draft him while operating in Shanahan’s quarterback incubator would be an overly hasty decision and serve as highly questionable process on the part of the Niners.

Four starts, one of which was in torrential rain in Chicago and was followed by another in which he suffered a season-ending ankle injury, is not enough evidence on which to judge Lance.

The Niners may rightly love what they unearthed in Purdy with the final pick in last year’s draft, but he would be under tremendous and unnecessary pressure to recover were San Francisco to cut ties with Lance after two seasons in which he has barely seen the field.

On top of that, per Over The Cap, the 49ers would incur an $11 million dead cap hit if they traded Lance before June 1. Such a move does not make financial sense for San Francisco and it does not make sense for a quarterback room that has much-needed depth.

For too many years during the Shanahan-Lynch era, the Niners have been in quarterback jeopardy because of injuries. Simply put, there is no reason to intentionally place themselves in that situation again by trading Lance. Purdy’s health is up in the air, but at least the 49ers have alternative options. Removing one of the options would be a foolish decision.