A surprisingly good ADP figure – Commerzbank

The published ADP data on employment changes really doesn’t have much to do with the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is always published two days later. Therefore, it cannot be concluded from yesterday’s data release that tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls figure will be particularly high, Commerzbank’s Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes.

ADP data don’t provide any information about the nonfarm payrolls

“Nevertheless, the currency market reacts, when the ADP figure (as yesterday) is miles above analysts’ estimates, with USD strength. Not much and not permanently, but visibly.

“In this respect, currency traders remind me a bit of my grandmother. She would have vehemently denied being superstitious, but she would never have hung out the laundry during the “Rough Nights” (“Twelvetide” in English, the period between Christmas and Epiphany). Because then, according to old Germanic mythology, the riders of the Wild Hunt would come. And they would be angry if they got tangled up in the laundry.”

“Apparently, currency traders are a lot like that: you know that the ADP data don’t actually provide any information about the nonfarm payrolls, but a small USD long position can’t hurt. Isn’t it interesting how stubbornly such superstitions persist in the age of data analytics, trading machines and AI?”