A Russian Invasion Of Ukraine Could Flood Europe With Millions Of Refugees

President Biden warned in his year-end news conference that a war between Russia and Ukraine could break out at any moment. As White House press secretary Jen Psaki put it, we are witnessing an “extremely dangerous situation.” Indeed, several developments suggest the invasion is imminent. Some Ukrainian government online platforms were the subject of a “mysterious” cyber attack shutting them down in recent days, and an unusual barrage of “analytical articles” focusing on the weakness of NATO and the American administration have littered the internet. Sweden moved hundreds of troops not long ago to its strategically important Gotland island – which lies in the Baltic Sea. And Denmark strengthened its military presence in the region a few days before that. In addition, American and Ukrainian officials have noted that Russia has been emptying out its embassy in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. While a plethora of Western articles discussing the crisis have appeared, one aspect of the conflict that has not been adequately considered is the likely exodus of refugees from Ukraine. In short, should a Russian invasion of Ukraine take place, what will be the impact of immigration on Western Europe and even North America?

A Quick Answer

The quick answer according to Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s Minister of Defense, is that, “A major war in Ukraine would plunge the whole of Europe into crisis. The sudden appearance of between three and five million Ukrainian refugees fleeing the Russian invasion would be just one of many major concerns facing European society.” Confirming this view, a senior Western intelligence official said, “We could have a very large number of refugees, deaths could reasonably be expected to be high as would destruction within Ukraine.”

Historical Context

These views make sense judging by the number of Ukrainians that were displaced by Russia’s 2014 intrusion into the Donbas region of Ukraine. The war that erupted then in eastern Ukraine has left 14,000 dead, 30,000 injured and an estimated 1.5 million displaced. Fortunately for the West in 2014, Ukraine absorbed these displaced people inside its western territories so there was no exodus of immigrants and no burden of refugees to bear by the EU. This time it appears likely things will be different. Depending on the degree of the invasion, there may be no Ukrainian territories to absorb displaced persons.

Nuclear Concerns

Of course no one can predict how many people in Ukraine may head westward if an invasion takes place. But as Craig Hooper, a Forbes journalist put it in considering that nuclear power plants could be involved in the fight, “The threat is real. Ukraine is heavily dependent upon nuclear power, maintaining four nuclear power plants and stewardship of the shattered nuclear site at Chernobyl. In a major war, all 15 reactors at Ukraine’s nuclear power facilities would be at risk, but even a desultory Russian incursion into eastern Ukraine is likely to expose at least six active reactors to the uncertainty of a ground combat environment.” Were nuclear power plants hit, there can be little doubt the exodus would be massive. As one Canadian official speculated, considering that the Russian invasion into about 20 percent of Ukraine’s geographic territory since 2014 has generated about 1.5 million displaced persons, by that measure, a larger Russian invasion could generate as many as 7 million Ukrainian refugees.

What Should The U.S. And Allies Do?

Whatever the scale of the Russian invasion, Seth G. Jones of the Center for Strategic and International Studies says that if deterrence fails, the U.S. and its partners should, “Offer humanitarian support to help Ukraine deal with refugees and internally displaced persons. This assistance may also need to be extended to NATO allies on Ukraine’s borders for refugees fleeing westward.” Indeed, depending on the scale of the attack and the number of those fleeing, the U.S. and allies like the U.K., Canada and Australia may need to consider special immigration programming to help deal with the humanitarian crisis.

Why Is There A Crisis?

At the heart of this crisis is a Budapest Accord reached shortly after the demise of the former Soviet Union. In that agreement signed in 1994, Ukraine agreed to surrender its nuclear arsenal based on explicit assurances made by Russia, the U.S. and the U.K. (as well as similar supplementary assurances made by France and China). The assurances were that Ukraine’s territorial integrity and political independence would be respected and maintained. At the time Ukraine had the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world, including 5,000 strategic and tactical nuclear warheads. In accordance with the agreements reached and the assurances given, Ukraine surrendered these weapons to Russia. Since then Russia has invaded Ukraine, first in Crimea in 2014, and thereafter in the Donbas region. Ukraine has sought membership in NATO as a way to defend itself, but Russia objects to NATO’s presence there. This disagreement could erupt into a further war that would threaten to upend the lives of people in Ukraine leading to the possible exodus discussed earlier.

Blinken Trying To Avert War

While officials are clearly preparing for the worst, diplomatic talks are still in progress and U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is, along with others, working to avert the crisis. He is trying to shore up the support of key NATO partners before his final meetings in Geneva with the Russian Foreign Minister.