A Mere 3.9% Decline Has Seen The Miami Heat Fall Out Of Contention

In the 2021/22 NBA regular season, the league shot the best it ever had. And the Miami Heat shot the best of everyone.

The Heat led the NBA with a 37.9% three-point percentage as a team, coming on an average of 35.8 attempts per game, a key part of how they compiled the tenth-best offensive rating. Pairing that with their fifth-best defence, they finished with a 53-29 regular season record, and made it all the way to game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. They were one of the best teams in the NBA, and at its foundation was their league-best shooting.

This season, though, the team’s three-point percentage has regressed back to 34.0%. That puts them 24th in the league in that category, and anchors them to the fourth-worst offensive rating, a mere 18-17 record at the time of writing, and the provisional seventh seed only. Can a mere 3.9% drop in just one area of the court – which, even in the pace-and-space era, is still the minority of their total attempts – really make that much of a difference to what had previously been such a well-rounded team?

Seemingly, yes.

Unnervingly, the Heat have had almost exactly the same roster across these two seasons. The only changes to the current roster from the one that ended last season saw Markieff Morris, P.J. Tucker, Mychal Mulder and Javonte Smart be replaced with Nikola Jovic, Orlando Robinson and Jamal Cain, and although Tucker’s efficient outside shooting is a notable loss to the rotation, the others were non-rotation players who make no significant difference.

Because of this continuity, the Heat therefore remain built around the duo of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. And for all of their all-around excellence, neither is an outside shooter. Butler is 16-47 from three on the season, and Adebayo is 1-10; the high-volume, high-efficiency outside shooting needs to come from everyone else around them, and for them, rather than from them.

Unfortunately, though, they are not getting that. Not enough, at least. Caleb Martin is pulling his weight with a very healthy 39.7% shooting percentage from outside, and after a slow start, Tyler Herro’s hot December has seen his efficiency mark rebound to 39.4%, entirely in line with his career numbers. After that, though, things taper away.

Veteran point guard Kyle Lowry is third in both volume and efficiency with 72 makes on the season, but they come on only 35.4% efficiency. Butler, the supposed non-shooter (at least relative to other NBA star wings), comes in at fourth. It is only after that that the supposed shooting specialists come in – Duncan Robinson, Max Strus and Gabe Vincent are combining for 17.9 three-pointers per game just as a trio, yet they have hit only 32.6% in the process.

Indeed, Butler is somehow proving to be the best open shooter on the team. Per NBA.com’s tracking stats, the Heat are shooting a woeful 33.1% as a team on catch-and-shoot threes, the second-worst mark in the league ahead of only the disappointing Atlanta Hawks. And on wide-open threes – defined as not having a defender within six feet – they shoot only 35.6%.

Butler’s 39.3% leads the team in catch-and-shoot threes, but since Butler is not the one who is usually open, this is a problem. When supposed specialists such as Vincent are down at 27.2% like he is, that is a significant problem. Even when the Heat are creating good looks for what are supposed to be the right players, they are just not hitting them. And the knock-on effects from that have massively impacted the quality of their play this season.

With spacing being the issue that it is, confidence is waning, and with the reduced confidence comes less crisp movement. In the halfcourt, the Heat are more static off the ball than in the previous season, and the lack of shooting threat in transition makes for a less potent threat in that area of the game too. It is easier to defend fewer options.

Similarly, more missed threes means more live ball rebounds and semi-transition defensive responsibilities going the other way. As a veteran and somewhat slow team, all the clanks are playing into their weaknesses, and for all the off-ball cutting that they do, every half-step that defences can cheat off of the shooters (or “shooters”) makes for worse efficacy there, too.

Beyond the specialists, the shooting tapers off. As above, Butler and Adebayo do everything but shoot it much, and the injuries and sizeable decline in his burst have seen Victor Oladipo’s once-useful jumper leave him again. Haywood Highsmith is a defence-first player whose shooting contributions are spotty, Dewayne Dedmon attempts far more than he probably should, Jovic has not got NBA three-point range in his legs yet, and that is the end of the rotation.

The biggest problem has been with Robinson’s slump, and, more importantly, the resulting lack of shooting from the forward positions he is supposed to occupy. Lowry and Butler need holes to drive through, and Adebayo thrives when given space – in all cases, playing at least four out makes for better opportunities. With Tucker at the centre spot last year, the Heat could often run five out, and always at least four. Now, they are struggling to get three.

Robinson’s limitations saw him deemed surplus to requirements in big postseason minutes last season, yet due to their excess of quality at the one thing he does best, they could survive and thrive without him. This year, they cannot. But for as long as he, Strus and Vincent are shooting so consistently below average, they cannot survive with them, either.