A Kuzma Departure This Summer Could Force Wizards Into Changes

The Washington Wizards stand at a crossroad, their future unknown, but likely dictated by the free agency of forward Kyle Kuzma, who has spent two years with the franchise, putting himself on display for the rest of the NBA.

Kuzma, after escaping the Los Angeles Lakers where he seemed destined for a smaller role than what his talents warrant, is averaging 21.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists over 64 games this season, producing at a near All-Star level.

The breakout, which frankly started last season – his first with the Wizards – has unquestionably pushed his value up. Few players in the NBA average over 20 points per game, while receiving under $20 million per year. Kuzma will be no exception.

With the salary cap estimated to rise by $11 million, not a single eye would bat it’s eyelids if Kuzma were to close a deal worth an annual compensation level of over $25 million per year. After all, the 6’9 forward is not just a scorer, but an improving playmaker which doesn’t come cheap in today’s market.

Washington can of course offer Kuzma the compensation he’s looking for, and they might not have much of a choice but to pony up given their prior investments into Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porziņģis.

Losing Kuzma, while paying Beal $46.7 million and Porziņģis $36 million next season, would seem wasteful and illogical given the franchise’s direction of trying to win now.

That mission, however, has hardly proven fruitful this season. The Wizards are in free fall, and have essentially gift-wrapped the 10th seed to the Chicago Bulls in recent weeks. Washington sits at an unremarkable 32-41, which in theory would justify a different course of action.

But this is where things get complicated.

For one, losing Kuzma for nothing would not be an active in any way. Whether they re-sign him only to trade him later, or pivot off of him via a sign-and-trade, both beat the alternative of seeing leave outright, which is a right afforded to him by his pending unrestricted free agency status.

Adding even more complexity to the situation is the fact that the Wizards gave Beal a no-trade clause in his latest contract, giving the star the right of vetoing any trade involving him.

Beal, who is obviously the most attractive trade piece in Washington, thus wields a level of power that can directly prevent the Wizards from going into a fully-fledged rebuild. That is, of course, unless Beal sees the writing on the wall and is willing to waive that clause in order to move on.

Perhaps the motivation to leave Washington develops by a Kuzma departure, where Beal looks around the locker room only to realize he’s not getting close to a championship anytime soon.

Or perhaps – and maybe worryingly for Washington – Beal decides to stick around out of a sense of loyalty, effectively forcing the Wizards in a direction they likely shouldn’t go.

Porziņģis is, somewhat ironically, the least of their concerns given how he’s rebuilt his own value this year by averaging 23.0 points and 8.4 rebounds. If the Wizards go end up going into a rebuild, he will be able to be moved, and likely for a decent return. What could be a problem is his contract, which expires 2024, should the organization decide to stick with the idea of trying to win.

It isn’t inconceivable that the Wizards lose Kuzma and Porziņģis in back-to-back summers, which would drastically alter the long-term outlook of the franchise, unless of course the franchise takes matters into their own hands and move off Porziņģis before his contract expires.

However this summer plays out, Washington is in drastic need of change, and that starts by not losing crucial assets, that could help them achieve it in the long run.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.