A James Harden Return To The Rockets Would Have To Be For The Right Reasons

The Houston Rockets are heavily rumored to explore a potential James Harden return this summer, when the All-Star can become an unrestricted free agent if he opts out of his $35.6 million player option.

Presumably, the idea for the Rockets would be to accelerate their rebuild and transform into a playoff team, as Harden is at an age (34 this August) where winning takes priority.

Only, this is where things get complicated.

The franchise has done an admirable job rebuilding, and have generally done well in the draft over the past few years. Jalen Green is already a stable 20-point scorer. Alperen Şengün is one of the most creative passers at center position in the league, who can also be penciled in next year for a double-double. Jabari Smith and Tari Eason have – despite modest debut seasons – significant two-way upside.

And, of course, the Rockets also have a 14% chance of winning the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery, which bodes well for their future.

Acquiring Harden, unless agreed to beforehand, comes with the responsibility of follow-up moves. Harden’s timeline is simply too far ahead of where the current group of players is, and if ownership wishes to compete for a championship, they’ll need to pivot off those pieces to provide Harden with the necessary tools to do so. And even that isn’t exactly a slam dunk.

While both Green and Şengün could very well fetch borderline All-Star caliber players closer to Harden in age, salary matching is a thing the Rockets would need to take into account.

Salary matching is a major component of roster construction in the NBA, which makes it difficult for Houston to assemble a roster around Harden, who himself is likely asking for a contract worth $35 million or more per year.

It simply isn’t feasible to swap players on cheap rookie deals away for major salary earners unless the aforementioned rookie deal players are packaged together, collectively upping the outgoing salary.

And make no mistake: Even if the Rockets could afford to have three players earning $30+ million annually, the players they could get back – in terms of talent – won’t be superstars. In fact, you could make a reasonable argument that not a single player the Rockets could get in return for Green, Şengün, Smith, and Eason would be better than Joel Embiid, Harden’s current teammate.

The only possible thing that could change those parameters would be lucking into Victor Wembanyama by winning the lottery, and be willing to shop him around for a superstar.

The Wembanyama scenario, while intriguing from a trade perspective, is however one that raises a brand new question.

Why should the Rockets prioritize building a win-now team around Harden, if they have the most exciting roster for the future in the league?

Sure, there’s a fan base that would return with Harden back in a Rockets uniform. But remember, this isn’t the version that left Houston just over two years ago. It simply isn’t logical to look at Harden, as he is now, and reach the conclusion that he’s a player to build around, especially when the young that replaced him has provided plenty of reasons for the team to maintain their investment in them.

Any Harden return should start with one caveat.

“Your presence here is to help the young players get better, and winning is a second priority.”

Because that, by and large, is the only way this makes sense for the Rockets. Harden is unquestionably one of the best playmakers in the league, and he would make an enormous impact on the younger generation, simply by getting them the ball, teaching them how to close out games, and use himself as a teacher and mentor.

As much improved as Kevin Porter Jr has been at the guard spot this year, he’s no Harden. He doesn’t see the game in the same way, nor does he have the same passing chops, and that’s where a signing of Harden would be incredibly valuable for the Rockets. Where Porter Jr is more reactionary and explosive, Harden is calculated and attentive to details. Elements that, for Green especially, would help unlock parts of his game he probably never knew existed.

But, while the above scenario sounds like the right approach, Harden has to buy into that line of thinking. He’s currently advanced to the second round with Philadelphia in the Eastern Conference, and there are clear goals in that organization of making a Finals run. If they do – or even if they just come close – would a return back home to Houston to become a teacher be an intriguing enough proposition for Harden?

For the Rockets, the answer needs to be an overwhelming yes. Otherwise, there’s really no point in going the Harden route.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.