Economists at ING analyze how another Fed hold, but with pushback on rate cut prospects, could impact the FX market.
Fed pushback could dent recent high-yield FX rally
A Fed pushback against market pricing of the easing cycle in 2024 should be mildly supportive of the Dollar.
Even though EUR/USD has performed poorly through the start of December and could get some mild support a day later from the ECB, this FOMC meeting could prompt losses to the 1.0650 area.
Perhaps more vulnerable to a decent Fed pushback against lower rates might be what we call the ‘growth’ currencies, such as the high beta currencies in Scandinavia and the commodity sector (Australian and Canadian Dollars). These currencies have had a good run through November on the lower US rate environment. However, these currencies are our top picks for next year and should meet good demand on pullbacks this month.
As to the wild ride that is USD/JPY, higher US yields could provide some temporary support. However, we doubt USD/JPY will sustain gains above the 146/147 area as traders re-adjust positions for a potential change in the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy on December 19th. We suspect that USD/JPY has peaked, however, and are happy with our call for USD/JPY to be trading close to 135 next summer after the BoJ starts to dismantle its ultra-dovish policy in the first half of next year.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/a-fed-pushback-against-market-pricing-of-the-easing-cycle-in-2024-should-be-mildly-supportive-of-the-usd-ing-202312130722