Renowned economist Steve Hanke says the U.S. is almost certainly heading into a recession this year
According to him the odds are around staggering 90%.
That’s way beyond the 40–60% estimates from big banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. Speaking to David Lin on April 13, the Johns Hopkins professor didn’t hold back.
“I think it’s over 90%. A recession is coming. Sales drop, profits drop, earnings drop. It’s that simple,” Hanke said.
Wall Street Is Too Optimistic, Hanke Says
S&P 500 earnings expectations have already dropped from 15% to 10%. But Hanke believes even zero growth or negative returns are more realistic.
He’s not alone—JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently warned that earnings could fall flat or worse in the coming months.
Echoes of 1930: The Tariff Trap?
Hanke also drew a chilling parallel to the Great Depression. He said today’s economic playbook—particularly the tariff hikes—reminds him of the Smoot-Hawley Act, which triggered an 83% stock market crash from 1930 to 1932.
With Trump’s tariff plans already spooking markets, Hanke warned history could be repeating.
“Bad policy turned a recession into a depression. We’re flirting with the same mistake,” he said.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/90-recession-risk-top-economist-warns-2025-could-mirror-great-depression/