$822M Extensions Have OKC Thunder Careening Toward NBA’s Three-Max Problem

Fresh off winning their first championship in franchise history, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been shelling out the big bucks this offseason.

First, they agreed to a four-year supermax extension with reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander worth a projected $285 million. On Wednesday, they came to terms with Chet Holmgren on a five-year max extension that could be worth as much as $250 million. And on Thursday, they agreed to a five-year max extension with Jalen Williams that could rise to $287 million if he wins MVP or Defensive Player of the Year or gets named to an All-NBA team this coming season.

Williams and Holmgren’s new contracts won’t take effect until the 2026-27 season, while Gilgeous-Alexander’s doesn’t begin until 2027-28. The Thunder currently project to be $1.4 million below the $187.9 million luxury-tax threshold this coming season, so they’ll have far more financial flexibility than most title contenders will in the near term. However, they’ll start feeling the wrath of the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement soon.

Once Holmgren and Williams’ new deals kick in, the Thunder project to have a payroll of roughly $246 million, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks. That would put them well above both the projected $209 million first apron and $222 million second apron, which would lead to a host of team-building restrictions. It’ll only get worse when Gilgeous-Alexander’s supermax extension begins in 2027-28.

In short, the Thunder are about to become the ultimate test of whether Big Threes are viable long-term under the new CBA. If they can’t make it work despite their hoard of assets and flexible contract structures, it could result in a team-building sea change across the NBA.

The Thunder’s Outlook

If the 2026-27 salary cap lands around the current projection of $165 million, Williams and Holmgren will both earn more than $41 million next season. Combine that with the $40.8 million that Gilgeous-Alexander is due in the final year of his current contract, and the Thunder would be spending north of $123 million on those three alone.

The Thunder also have Alex Caruso ($19.6 million), Isaiah Joe ($11.3 million), Aaron Wiggins ($9.2 million), Jaylin Williams ($7.7 million) and Thomas Sorber ($4.9 million) on guaranteed contracts. Between their Big Three and that quintet, they’re already up to roughly $176.3 million in salary, which leaves them only $24 million below the luxury-tax line. If they pick up their team options on Cason Wallace ($7.4 million) and Nikola Topić ($5.4 million), they’d be up to $189.1 million.

The extensions for Gilgeous Alexander, Williams and Holmgren didn’t catch the Thunder off guard, though. They knew they were coming and spent the past few years planning accordingly.

In July 2022, the Thunder signed Kenrich Williams to a four-year, $27.2 million extension that began in the 2023-24 season and re-signed Lu Dort to a five-year, $82.5 million deal that started right away. Both contracts had a team option in 2026-27. The same goes for the three-year, $87 million that they handed Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency last summer.

Dort, Hartenstein and Williams are set to make $53.9 million in 2026-27 if the Thunder pick up all three of their options. Given how far that would push them over the second apron, the odds of that happening are roughly nil. Williams, who averaged only 16.4 minutes per game this past season, is by far the most expendable. Losing Hartenstein or Dort would be a legitimate blow to the Thunder’s rotation.

These are the tough choices that the NBA’s latest collective bargaining agreement is designed to force teams into. Those that decide to build around three players on max contracts have to trim around the edges and continually replenish their supporting cast.

It’ll only get worse for the Thunder in 2027-28, when Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren and Williams could be earning a combined $150.2 million, if not more. If Williams makes an All-NBA team this coming season or wins MVP or Defensive Player of the Year, his new extension will start at 30% of the 2026-27 salary cap ($49.6 million) rather than 25% ($41.4 million). He’d earn a projected $53.6 million in 2027-28 rather than $44.7 million, so OKC’s Big Three would cost roughly $159.1 million against a projected $173.7 million salary cap.

Why OKC Might Survive It

The contract structures for Hartenstein, Dort and Kenrich Williams aren’t the only way in which the Thunder have spent the past few years future-proofing themselves. They’ve also amassed a deep war chest of future draft picks, which will allow them to continually replenishing their supporting cast with young, cost-controlled talent once they’re forced to begin shedding veterans.

The Thunder could have as many as four first-round picks in 2026, three in 2027 and two in 2029. They’re also owed three unprotected second-round picks from other teams both in 2029 and 2030, along with two additional second-rounders in 2028 and one in 2031. That volume of capital increases their margin for error in the inexact science that is the NBA draft.

The Thunder also have two major wild cards in the former of Topić, the No. 12 overall pick in 2024, and Sorber, whom they just selected with the No. 15 pick in this year’s draft. Topić missed the entire 2024-25 campaign to recover from a torn ACL, but he’s a 6’6″ jumbo playmaker who could fill a secondary creation void for OKC. Meanwhile, Sorber might be the heir apparent to Hartenstein, as he measured in at 6’9¼” without shoes at the NBA draft combine with a massive 7’6″ wingspan.

Topić still has three years left on his rookie-scale contract, while Sorber has all four. If either of them pop early in their NBA careers, they could buy the Thunder some extra time as they navigate who else they can afford to keep in their supporting cast.

Cason Wallace figures to be the big swing piece in that regard. The No. 10 overall pick from the 2023 draft started in 43 of his 68 regular-season appearances this past year, although he mostly came off the bench in OKC’s run to the championship. The Thunder likely can’t afford to keep both him and Caruso around long-term, and he becomes extension-eligible next summer. If he and OKC can’t come to terms on a new deal, he’ll become a restricted free agent in the 2027 offseason.

The Thunder have been lights-out from a drafting and player-development standpoint in recent years. They landed Wiggins with the No. 55 overall pick in 2021. They scooped Joe (No. 49 in 2020) off waivers after the Philadelphia 76ers released him ahead of the 2022-23 campaign. Dort was an undrafted free agent in 2019. The trade for Caruso was a masterstroke as well, especially since the Thunder didn’t have to give up any draft picks in the deal.

Still, no front office bats 1.000 in the draft, free agency or in trades. The Thunder are bound to make mistakes with their roster in the coming years, just as every other team does. While their draft hoard could help them survive a few of those slip-ups, whiffs will still become far more punishing once their Big Three’s new extensions kick in.

Can the Thunder defy the odds and maintain that core? Or will the new CBA wreak havoc on even them? Other teams figure to be watching closely over the next few years either way.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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