80% Of Russian Troops Ready To Invade Ukraine Imminently, U.S. Says

Topline

Russia has placed 80% of its troops encircling Ukraine in forward positions, giving Russian President Vladimir Putin the ability to launch a full-scale attack on the country at any moment, a senior U.S. defense official said Wednesday, a dire warning as Russia threatens to send troops into a contested region of eastern Ukraine.

Servicemen of Ukrainian Military Forces walk as they keep position on the front line with Russia … [+] backed separatists, near Novolugansk, in the Donetsk region, on February 17.

AFP via Getty Images

Key Facts

Nearly all of the Russian troops the Pentagon expected to be in place are now in the region, and some troops are within miles of the Ukrainian border, an unnamed U.S. defense official told CNN during a briefing.

Similarly, U.S. officials warned their Ukrainian counterparts Tuesday morning an invasion could begin imminently, and the eastern city of Kkarkiv—Ukraine’s second-largest city, located about 20 miles south of the Russian border—is in an especially precarious position, CNN reported Wednesday, citing Ukrainian and Western sources.

Russia has denied any interest in invading Ukraine, but Russian officials have demanded security concessions from Western governments—including a promise to exclude Ukraine from NATO—and threatened “military-technical” measures.

Surprising Fact

Russian troops can only stay in forward positions—which often include spartan accommodations—for several days before their readiness begins to deteriorate, experts told The Guardian on Wednesday. For that reason, Russia may need to decide quickly between launching an invasion of Ukraine and returning their troops to larger bases.

What We Don’t Know

The exact timing of a Russian invasion—and whether an invasion takes place at all—are still up to Russia, the defense official told the Post. Predictions about the timing of an attack have appeared in the press in the past, some of which ultimately haven’t materialized, including a Wall Street Journal report from two weeks ago suggesting U.S. officials believed an invasion was likely to take place February 16.

Key Background

Russia began amassing over 150,000 troops near the Ukrainian border late last year, according to U.S. officials, prompting fears Russia—which is seeking to keep Ukraine in its orbit—could attack large swaths of its neighbor. The situation has grown especially tense this week: Putin recognized the independence of two eastern Ukrainian territories controlled by Russian-backed separatists on Monday, and indicated he may send “peacekeeping” troops into those territories, a move President Joe Biden characterized Tuesday as the start of an invasion. Violations of a ceasefire between Ukraine and the pro-Russia separatists—who have fought the Ukrainian government since 2014—have also become more frequent in recent days, a trend Western officials have cast as a deliberate attempt by Russia to create a pretext for an invasion.

Tangent

In response to Russia’s actions in eastern Ukraine, the Biden Administration unveiled sanctions on Russian sovereign debt, two major Russian banks and several oligarchs Tuesday, part of a wave of major sanctions from Western countries. Meanwhile, Germany halted the approval of Nord Stream 2, a not-yet-operational natural gas pipeline to Russia, and the United States ordered sanctions on the company responsible for building the pipeline Wednesday.