SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 01: Christian McCaffrey #23 of the San Francisco 49ers runs with the ball against the Arizona Cardinals at Levi’s Stadium on October 01, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Getty Images
It’s the first full week of NFL football. Hopefully you did well in the Thursday Night Showdown, (spoiler alert I did not). But now it is time to concentrate on the Sunday main slate, or betting parlay, or whatever other fantasy game you are going to play.
This article is specific to DraftKings with a little bit of FanDuel sprinkled in. All cards on the table I play more on DraftKings than I do on FanDuel, more on that later. This is about DraftKings tournament games, single entry (and by single entry these are games that max out on three entries or less). And yes, there are so many more sites and these basics this week apply to them all.
When playing DFS there are many things to consider. Here are my top seven as we start week one. .
Bankrolling Your DFS
I will probably mention this more than once but your bankroll is THE MOST IMPORTANT thing. You never want to bet more than you can lose. Have an amount set and stick with that amount. Which brings us to the second thing.
DFS Game Selection
Decide what games you want to play. Do you want to go all in and play for the MilliMaker or are you going to be more reasonable and go for the games that have a more balanced payout structure? Whether you are playing DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo or the many other DFS sites, select the games you want to play wisely.
For instance, the Millimaker this week is only $5 to enter with an entry limit of 150. They are allowing 832,342 entries. I live in Denver, Colorado with a population of 729,019. You are playing the population of Denver plus 100,000 more, give or take. And with the reduced entry fee, you are playing a lot of sharks.
Don’t get me wrong, someone has to win and why shouldn’t it be you. Just think of it as your very own lottery ticket. Your odds aren’t great, but you have to be in it to win it.
Just remember you don’t have to limit yourself to large tournaments with a skewed payoff structure (in most large tournaments the top 10% are winning the ‘big money’). So, this week in the Millimaker first place is of course a million dollars, second place is $100,000, third place is $60,000 and so on.
But there are more than just GPP (guaranteed prize pool ) tournaments to play. You can play head-to-head, double ups, multipliers and even smaller tournaments with a much limited entry limit and much smaller number of people you will be playing against.
A good rule of thumb is if you can’t max out the number of entries you can put into the contest, maybe it’s not for you.
Going back to the Millimaker, I guarantee there are people who are putting in 150 different lineups. I’m putting in one lineup. Just against them my odds are 150:1. 😬
Know The Scoring/Pricing System
This is paramount in any and all fantasy games. Know how your players are going to score points. There is a fundamental difference in the way DraftKings scores and the way FanDuel scores.
DraftKings is a point per reception (PPR) scoring system with bonuses for 100-yards. FanDuel is a half points per receptions with bonuses that are skewed differently than DraftKings. FanDuel tends to give more love to the pocket passing quarterback and touchdowns. DraftKings loves the pocket passers also, but they adore the mobile quarterbacks.
The pricing is also different. But this being the first week both sites are soft on the pricing. Remember once the pricing comes out, it remains until the next week regardless of a player’s status.
Which is why it is important to keep last minute injury reports close at hand. For instance, if Christian McCaffrey cannot go week one it dramatically alters who becomes the focal point of the San Francisco 49ers offense. Then the pricing for say Ricky Pearsall becomes a better value and possibly a slate breaker.
Week 1
The beauty of week one DFS is everyone is closer to being equal, because of the unknown. Sure we have the stats from last year and we know what has happened in preseason, but we really don’t know what each team is going to put on the field until we see it.
Whose bingo card had Javonte Williams with two rushing touchdowns and Saquon Barkley with one? Or Justin Herbert torching a Steve Spagnuolo defense for 318 yards and three passing touchdowns?
Yes, the seasoned DFS players will have stats and correlations (so do you) but for week one the playing field is a little more level, use it to your advantage.
4.5X
Remember to correlate a person’s salary with the amount of points they need to get to help you win. We can’t just play him because he is a “good player” and has the highest salary. Matchups matter. How many fantasy points the player will get each week depends on his talent, his offense and yes the defenses he is playing against. So do the math.
The usual number is 4.5X salary. For instance this week Jayden Daniels is the highest salaried quarterback on DraftKings. At his current salary of $7000 he would have to score 31.5 fantasy points to help put you in the winners circle. Whereas, Joe Flacco is $4900 and he would only need 22.1 fantasy points to help propel you into the winner circle.
And you only have $50,000 to spend on eight players and a defense, so choose wisely. You don’t have to hit on every position (although that would be nice), you just need to max out as many as possible.
Listen To Your Gut
This applies specifically if you have listened, read and absorbed all the information available to you. Sure there are strategies that apply, stacking players, stacking teams, bring-backs, but you have done the research, if you for instance feel that the Carolina v Jacksonville game will go over its implied total and be a shoot out, go with it.
Or maybe you feel Ja’Marr Chase’s salary is too expensive for a divisional game or that Cincinnati will score less than the 28.75 they are expected to score against Cleveland. Sometimes the best decisions are those that go against the crowd.
Have Fun
This goes hand in hand with your bankroll management. It is easier to have fun when you are winning but it is also easy to have fun when you have control of your finances.
This is a quote from Rich Hribar (@LordReebs on Twitter) that I keep in mind,
“The most likely outcome is just one of an infinite number of outcomes”. Remember that and you should be fine. Have fun, NFL 2025 DFS is going to be your year.