This is about your DFS fantasy football week. Whether you are playing large GPP or small tournament fields, we all know that playing DFS is both fun and frustrating.
There are way more than seven things that you know, you know, like monitor your bankroll, pick your games wisely, and it is always better when playing large GPPs to only play those games that you can max out.
Remember, this is all about week four. The great thing about DFS is that it’s about the week you are in. So, let’s crush week four.
Number 1: DraftKings Sunday Main Slate
There are only 11 games on this week’s main slate. Seven of the games are in the early slate, and four are in the late bracket.
Number 2: Predictive Points From Highest to Lowest
- Colts @ Rams -3.5, 49.5 o/u
- Bears @ Raiders -1.5, 48.5 o/u
- Ravens -2.5 @ Chiefs, 48.5 o/u
- Jaguars @ Niners -3.5, 47.5 o/u
- Saints @ Bills -14.5, 47.5 o/u
- Browns @ Lions -9.5, 44.5 o/u
- Commanders @ Falcons -1.5, 43.5 o/u
- Eagles -3.5 @ Buccaneers, 43.5 o/u
- Chargers -6.5 @ Giants, 43.5
- Panthers @ Patriots -5.5, 42.5 o/u
- Titans @ Texans -7.5, 39.5 o/u
Number 3: Ownership Week 4
Per stokastic.com, the top 10 ownership (stokastic is a paid service)
RB Christian McCaffrey 37.73%
WR Puka Nacua 37.63%
WR Jakobi Meyers 23.83%
RB James Cook 23.80%
WR Chris Olave 21.03%
WR Davante Adams 18.63%
RB Jonathan Taylor 17.33%
RB Omarion Hampton 15.80%
RB Kyren Williams 15.67%
WR Drake London 15.07%
Stochastic Sims
For Quarterbacks:
Matthew Stafford on 19% lineups
Drake Maye on 14.79% lineups
Geno Smith on 12.3% lineups
Caleb Williams on 11% lineups
Justin Herbert on 10% lineups
Patrick Mahomes on 7% lineups
For Running Backs:
McCaffrey 92 lineups as running back and 33 in the flex
Hampton 98 lineups
Cook 38 lineups as RB1 and 56 as RB2
Taylor 47 combined
Bijan Robinson 16 lineups
Saquon Barkley 12 lineups
For Tight Ends:
Kyle Pitts’ 67 lineups
Hunter Henry 53 lineups
Juwan Johnson 39 lineups
Tyler Warren 37 lineups
Dalton Schultz 31 lineups
Number 4: FootballGuys.com DraftKings Player Projections
Quarterbacks Wide Receivers
- Josh Allen, $7700, 24.53 Puka Nacua, $7900, 23.15
- Lamar Jackson, $7500, 23.36 JSN
- Justin Herbert, $6300, 22.50 Ja’Marr Chase
- Caleb Williams, $5800, 21.60 Amon-Ra St. Brown, $7300, 19.55
- Patrick Mahomes, $6000, 21.57 Garrett Wilson
- Drake Maye, $5500, 21.35 Justin Jefferson
- Jalen Hurts, $6700, 21.10 Rome Odunze, $6300, 18.22
Running Backs Tight Ends
- Christian McCaffrey, $8500, 25.53 Trey McBride
- De’Von Achane Brock Bowers, $5800, 15.04
- Bijan Robinson, $8200, 20.71 Jake Ferguson
- Jonathan Taylor, $7500, 20.67 Tyler Warren, $4600, 13.14
- Jahmyr Gibbs, $7700, 20.02 Juwan Johnson, $4200, 13.04
- James Cook, $7100, 19.38 Tucker Kraft
- Saquon Barkley, $7600, 19.33 Hunter Henry, $4000, 12.50
Number 5: Stacking Options
Chalk Stack:
Matthew Stafford-Puka Nacua-Davante Adams/Jonathan Taylor-Tyler Warren
The Rams offense is concentrated with Nacua having a 40% first-read target rate and Adams having a 20% first-read target rate. (Adams is nursing a hamstring injury.)
Leverage Stack:
Geno Smith-Jakobi Meyers-Brock Bowers/Rome Odunze
Bears are giving up the most catches to tight ends (24), the most passing touchdowns (8), and the fourth most yards per pass (8.0). The Raiders are giving up the sixth-most yards per pass (7.6).
Contrarian Stack:
C.J. Stroud-Nico Collins
There is nothing to project the ceiling for Stroud in his first three games (and the end of last year). But if there is ever a get-right defense (game), it is against the dumpster fire that is the Tennessee Titans.
Number 6: Stat Talk
- Although you cannot run on the Cleveland Browns, the Browns’ defense is susceptible to players who line up wide, where they are giving up the fourth-highest completion percentage (73.4%), the eighth most yards per pass (9.5), and the ninth most receptions over 15 yards (9).
- Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams currently has 2% ownership, and Williams runs 76.7% of his routes out wide.
- New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson has a 29.2% target share and runs routes on 87% of the team’s dropbacks.
- The Buffalo Bills have allowed the second fewest fantasy points to the tight end position (2.3) and only one touchdown in three games to the position.
- In Week 3, the Houston Texans’ running backs
- Nick Chubb, $5100, 9 carries, 52.4% snap share, 3 targets on 17 routes
- Woody Marks, $4400, 6 carries, 47.29% snap share, 2 targets on 19 routes, had the only red zone carry.
- The Tennessee Titans are giving up the fourth-most yards per rush (5.3).
- The Carolina Panthers’ pass rush is last in pressure rate with a 1% sack rate.
- New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has a 113.4 QBR in a clean pocket and a 58.4 QBR when under pressure.
- The Kansas City Chiefs’ run defense is 29th EPA v run, 22nd DVOA v run, and has allowed 114 rushing yards per game.
- Per @LordReebs, Derrick Henry has 62% snaps when the Ravens are tied or ahead; the Ravens are -2.5 in this game.
Number 7: Fantasy Points Per Game
The highest and lowest fantasy points per game for three weeks:
Quarterback
The Carolina Panthers are averaging 10.0 fantasy points per game Week 4 going against QB Drake Maye.
The Dallas Cowboys are averaging 32.0 fantasy points per game Week 4 going against QB Jordan Love.
The Chicago Bears are averaging 27.0 fantasy points per game Week 4 going to QB @ Geno Smith.
Running Back
INDIANAPOLIS, IN – JANUARY 06: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts runs the ball during an NFL football game against the Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium on January 6, 2024 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
Getty Images
The Los Angeles Rams are giving up 6.3 fantasy points per game Week 4 going against Jonathan Taylor.
The Baltimore Ravens are giving up 28.3 fantasy points per game, Week 4 going against Isiah Pacheco.
Wide Receiver
Minnesota Vikings allowing only 9.3 fantasy points per game Week 4 v D.K. Metcalf
Carolina Panthers 12 fantasy points per game to position Week 4 @ NEP wide receivers
Chicago Bears 28.7 fantasy points per game Week 4 v Jakobi Meyers
Tight Ends
Atlanta Falcons are yielding only 1.0 fantasy points per game to position Week 4 v Zach Ertz.
Pittsburgh Steelers giving up 12.3 fantasy points per game to position Week 4 v T.J. Hockenson.
Detroit Lions giving up 10.7 fantasy points per game to position Week 4 v David Njoku.
Good Luck!