7 Surprising Things College Football And Weather Have In Common

ATLANTA – OCTOBER 17: Fans storm the North End Zone to bring down the goal post after the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 28-23 win over the Virginia Tech Hokies at Bobby Dodd Stadium on October 17, 2009 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

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Go Dawgs! Go Noles! Let’s start there. I am a three-time alumnus of Florida State University and have been a member of the faculty at the University of Georgia for almost two decades. I love college football. I am also certified weather geek. As another college football weekend approaches, I thought it would be fun to mix my passions into some teachable moments. Let’s see how this turns out.

There Is Predictability But Uncertainty With Both

Higher ranked teams typically win. On average, underdogs in college football games have only won roughly 25% of the time since 2005. If you look at the most recent 15 national championship games, the favored team won twelve times, according to Buckeyes Wire. With these types of numbers, there appears to be some degree of predictability. Favored teams may have a critical mass of highly rated student athletes, top facilities, accomplished coaching and so on. However, the top teams do not always win.

Weather prediction is the same way. There are factors that allow computer weather models and experienced forecasters to predict changes in the atmosphere. Over the years, I have asked random people if they know how weather forecasts are made. Most say things like watching weather patterns move across the country, radars, satellites, weather balloons or deciphering cloud patterns. Of course, there are snarky or humorous responses like guessing, the groundhog, or almanacs.

While many of the answers certainly contribute to the weather forecasting process, computer models are at the heart of diagnosing and predicting weather. The National Weather Service website noted, “Our scientists thoroughly review current observations using technology such as radar, satellite and data from an assortment of ground-based and airborne instruments to get a complete picture of current conditions.” After the analysis phase is done, weather models solve very complex equations. NWS went on to say, “Numerical modeling is fully ingrained in the forecast process, and our forecasters review the output of these models daily. Often, the models yield different results, and in these circumstances, forecasters will determine which models perform best for the given situation or seek a blended solution.” This statement is why information shared on social media can be misleading. Hype-laden information is often shared with one model outcomes or information beyond accepted ranges of reliable predictability (10 to 14 days).

The outcome of a college football game is impacted by weather, injuries, or a bad game plan. In other words, there is uncertainty. Though weather forecasts are quite good, there will always be uncertainty due to data gaps, computational limitations, assumptions within the models, human error, and chaotic aspects of the atmosphere. NWS said, “The chaotic nature of the earth-atmosphere system and incomplete sampling of its complicated physical processes mean that forecasts become more uncertain at longer time ranges. This uncertainty is why the human component remains a vital piece in the forecast process; as once the forecast is complete, effectively communicating the forecast message becomes as important as the details of the forecast itself.” These days, AI weather models are increasingly a part of the mix too.

Negativity Bias Creates False Narratives

I know. Many of you reading this may think meteorologists are wrong most of the time. I hear the jokes, comments, and frustrations. As I wrote eight years ago, “A field goal kicker could make every single kick during football season, but what if he misses the “big one” in the championship bowl game? He may be ridiculed or criticized, but is he a bad kicker?“ People tend to remember outcomes that impact them in some way. The weather forecast might be right 29 out of 30 days this month, but many people will anchor to the one day affected soccer practice or the company cookout. This is a form of negativity bias. According to verywellmind.com, negative bias is, “Our tendency not only to register negative stimuli more readily but also to dwell on these events.” It is also known as positive-negative asymmetry.”

There is also a little bit of recency bias in these false narratives too. The missed field goal in the national championship game or the scattered rain shower during the outdoor wedding reception matters most in that moment.

Motivated Reasoning Often Shapes Perception

Fan is an abbreviated representation of the word “fanatic.” When it comes to our college football teams, even the most logical and measured person can have unrealistic or misguided expectations. For example, many fans will consume blogs and sports pages that align with what they believe or want to believe. That’s called confirmation bias. Many FSU fans were overjoyed after the stunning win over Alabama in the first week of the season. The blogs and articles immediately pivoted to statements like “we’re back” or “we will be in the national championship picture this year.” Several weeks later, there is a different energy among FSU fans.

Fans also exhibit motivated reasoning. We often create narratives or scenarios that support a desired outcome. Each week college football fans consider data, historical outcomes, websites, and hope to draw conclusions about the outcome for their team. Motivated reasoning and confirmation bias appear in weather situations too. We consistently warn people not to drive through flooded roadways or stay on the fairway of a golf course when it is lightning, yet people do them anyhow. They are motivated to get to their child at daycare before it closes or want to finish that round.

I also see cases in which the forecast called for a 30% chance of rain. Some people assume that means 0% chance of rain and are, oddly, surprised if it rains on the backyard birthday party. I still recall telling an organization to have a backup plan for an event. The organizer told me that a lot of planning had gone into it, so they would just hope it works out. It rained out the event. Weather forecasting has advanced to the point that “hope” or “let’s see” are not viable plans of action.

College Football and Lightning Delays

Speaking of lightning, there have been a significant number of lightning delays this season. Typically, a delay is prompted if there is a lightning strike detected within 8 miles of the stadium. The delay continues until no strikes are detected for 30 minutes. The clock often resets for subsequent strikes. This can certainly be frustrating to players, fans, and the media.

Earlier this season, I saw at least one pundit suggest that fans sign waivers and risk their lives rather than have lightning delays. While I cannot speak to the seriousness of that suggestion, it does prompt another observation. During college football games and other sporting events, fans will often remain in the stadium during a lightning delay. Do you know what makes them run for the concourse? Once rain starts to fall. That’s always baffled me that getting wet is perceive as more of a threat than being struck by lightning.

Optimism Bias

This speaks to another cognitive bias at the intersection of weather and sports. Optimism bias causes people to underestimate the possibility of a negative outcome and overestimate the likelihood of a positive outcome. The odds of being struck by lightning over the course of your lifetime is about 1 in 15,000, and that likely increases if you make a habit of sitting in stadiums during weather delays. The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot are 1 in 200+ million. Optimism bias is on display in both cases.

Fans exhibit optimism bias during Hail Mary pass situations, extraordinarily long field goal attempts, and onside kicks. People exhibit it when they decide not to evacuate as a hurricane approaches, drive through flooded roadway by a creek, or run a marathon during an oppressive heatwave.

Meteorology Training and College Football

Another quirky correlation between weather and college football is where many meteorologists are trained. While not complete, here is a list of universities with major meteorology, atmospheric sciences or related programs:

• University of Oklahoma
• Pennsylvania State University
• Florida State University
• University of Wisconsin
• Texas A&M University
• University of Georgia
• University of Illinois
• North Carolina State University
• Colorado State University
• University of Washington
• UCLA
• University of Miami
• Ohio State University
• University of Michigan
• University of Arizona
• University of Nebraska
• University of Indiana
• Georgia Tech
• Purdue University

Many of these schools are perennial powerhouses in college football. Here is a full list of schools with atmospheric sciences or meteorology programs.

Passion

One final thing that meteorology and college football have in common is passion. As a former president of the American Meteorological Society, I know that many people in my field have been passionate about weather since middle or elementary school. I did a science project called, “Can A 6th Grader Predict The Weather?” My story is not unique. If you ask any meteorologist their story, it probably begins with an early experience, storm, or deep-rooted passion. As the director of the Atmospheric Sciences Program at the University of Georgia, I know that most of our majors don’t discover it. They walked in the door knowing exactly what their major would be. It’s passion.

That same passion will be on display at stadiums across the country tomorrow.