5 Questions You Shouldn’t Ask Meteorologists And The Reasons Why

Meteorologists are likely the only scientists the public routinely experiences in their daily routine. My colleagues are seen on television and increasingly through social media interactions. While younger generations mainly rely on weather apps these days (more on that later), many older adults still have a weather personality whom they rely on for daily information or in threatening weather situations. During my three decades in the meteorology field, I have noticed a set of recurring questions and some new ones in recent years. I woke up this morning and decided to have a little fun. Here are five questions you should not ask a meteorologist.

Is It Going To Rain At My House?

I was prompted to write this article after seeing a post from meteorologist Chris Jackson essentially apologizing that he could not respond to every specific query on his Facebook page. I have noticed this tendency over the years as well after posting general information to friends and followers about an approaching storm system, hurricane, or snow scenario. For example, I might post, “There is a squall line approaching the Atlanta area. Expect a heavy rainfall and lightning in the next 30 minutes followed by a sustained period of lighter rainfall.” Within minutes, I will receive a comments, direct messages, or texts asking if it is going to rain at a specific location or what specific time.

Most of my colleagues are passionate and courteous people so will often try to respond to as many questions as possible. That’s probably why so many meteorologists have large, loyal followings. It is tough situation because meteorologists like Chris Jackson and James Spann reach thousands of people daily, but it is unrealistic to expect them to be able to respond to specific questions. A 2021 study in the journal Nature Communications explored why people seek information. They found that people assess what they will learn from the information and then determine potential impacts of the information cognition or actions. I get it. You want localized information from your meteorological sources to make decisions or out of curiosity. Just remember that thousands of other people do to.

Why Are Meteorologists Always Wrong?

I have dealt with this question a lot over the years. I have written numerous articles articulating that weather forecasts are actually quite good. What I have noticed is that expectations, perceptions, or misunderstanding often leads to “the weather people are always wrong” narrative. Here are 3 scenarios many people might conclude are bad forecasts that are actually not:

1. There was a 20% chance of rain in your forecast area. It rained somewhere in the area, but not over Suzie’s tomato garden. We use probabilistic forecasts for rainfall coverage for an area. For some reason, people often perceive a low probability as 0 probability.
2. The hurricane cone of uncertainty is centered on Jacksonville a few days out, but Hurricane X actually makes landfall just to the south in St. Augustine. Hurricane expert Brian McNoldy at the University of Miami writes a great primer on how to consume the cone. He noted, “If a hurricane is approaching and you are scrutinizing each new forecast to see if you are inside the cone or not, you are missing the point of it. It is arbitrarily chosen to be the 67% historical probability threshold… a 75% probability cone would be larger, and a 50% probability cone would be smaller. Again, it is NOT a cone of concern”.
3. A tornado watch is issued for a large part of your county so your school system decides to do an “early release.” A tornado did impact the county but not where your child’s school is located. Be thankful and accept that some risk aversion will likely inconvenience you at times.

People can exhibit “local” bias when evaluating weather information. I occasionally notice “recency” and “impact” bias too. Most forecasts are right, but if a planned birthday cookout or soccer game is rained out due to a bad forecast (they do happen), broad conclusions are drawn. It’s like saying a kicker who made 98% of his field goals during the season is bad because he missed the big one in the bowl game.

Which App Do You Use?

I actually find this one to be amusing. My gut instinct is to react by saying, “That’s like asking your medical doctor which website she goes to for medical advice.” However, I usually smile and say that I tend to look at the model information, weather observations, and data to draw my own conclusions. Of course, there are certain radar or observational apps that I use and will often share them too.

Apps are popular because they are convenient. We live on our phones. They also quench people’s local bias thirst with immediate information with little sun emojis or messages like, “It’s going to start raining in 10 minutes.” Some apps are better than others, but I would never recommend them as a sole source of information, especially in rapidly evolving or dangerous weather situations. I have documented four common mistakes people make when using weather apps:

• Misunderstanding “percent chance of rain.”
• Assuming app forecasts are for the entire day.
• Interpreting the app forecast is for every single location in the area.
• Anchoring to static information when weather is dynamic and evolving.

The ship has definitely sailed on the presence of weather apps in our daily lives so just make sure you are aware of how you use them.

My Daughter Is Having An Outdoor Wedding Reception In 3 Months. Will It Rain?

Ummmm. Yikes. You’d be surprised at how often we get questions like this. Weather forecasts are made by solving complex equations in numerical prediction models. Data is input into the models to resolve the atmospheric fluid and its changes. It is one of the more difficult computational problems out there. Studies show that current model accuracy degrades beyond about 10 days or so. That should cause you to pause when you see “social mediarologists” posting single model run, long-range snow or hurricane forecasts for “likes” and “shares.” We are also seeing the emergence of AI models, which uses a very different paradigm than the current generation of weather models.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center does produce weekly, monthly and seasonal outlooks based on things like the presence of La Nina or El Nino. However, you will not find a credible 90-day forecast for a specific day. Climatological information, however, can certainly be used as guidance. For example, our recent family cruise was planned for early June for a reason. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is later in the summer.

Do You Believe In Climate Change?

Science isn’t a believe system like the tooth fairy or Santa. When I hear that question, it is like asking if you believe in gravity as you walk along the ledge of a skyscraper. Yes, climate changes naturally, but there is human steroid on top of it now. Studies also show that some aspects of our weather today are now affected.