5 Potential Outcomes In 2023 National Baseball Hall Of Fame And Museum Election

The National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum will announce the results of the 79^th Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) election on the MLB Network this evening at 6:00 PM ET from the venerable plaque gallery in Cooperstown, New York. The Class of 2023 already features first baseman Fred McGriff who was unanimously elected by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee Players in December. Joining McGriff this summer in Cooperstown will be Pat Hughes and John Lowe. Hughes, the radio play-by-play voice of the Chicago Cubs, was selected as the recipient of the Ford C. Frick Award for excellence in broadcasting. Lowe, the BBWAA Career Excellence Award winner for meritorious contributions to baseball writing, has been given credit for the creation of the quality start statistic in Major League Baseball.

A date always circled on the calendars of baseball fans, there seems to be a greater sense of intrigue this year given the presence of uncertainty. While it is unlikely that a candidate in their first year of eligibility will be elected, four returning candidates are flirting with the required 75 percent for enshrinement. If Carlos Beltran wasn’t implicated in the Houston Astros’ cheating scandal, he would have sailed into the Hall of Fame as it presently appears Beltran will have to pay a penance with many voters. The only sense of melancholy surrounds the perplexing candidacy of Jeff Kent as he is unlikely to receive the necessary support in his tenth and final year of eligibility based on the current ballots that have been made available to the public.

Ryan Thibodaux’s Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker is an invaluable resource as he compiles the voters’ public ballots and provides detailed analyses. Through 47 percent of the ballots known to Thibodaux as of 7:00 AM ET this morning, Todd Helton (80.1 percent) and Scott Rolen (79.0 percent) meet the minimum standard for election. Billy Wagner (73.7 percent) is the only other candidate who has received support on at least 70 percent of the ballots that have been made public. Along with Andruw Jones (68.3 percent), four candidates are presently surpassing the 65 percent threshold with Gary Sheffield (62.9 percent) closing in.

Given what has already become common knowledge in the form of public ballots, five potential outcomes are possible for the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame election. Thanks to resources made available by the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in the form of news and notes, context can be provided for each of the following outcomes.

Outcome Number One: No One Receives The Required 75 Percent For Enshrinement

Since 1936, the BBWAA have been voting in the Hall of Fame elections. If no one receives the required 75 percent this year, it will mark the tenth time the BBWAA have failed to open the gates to baseball immortality for a candidate. The last time this had occurred was in the 2021 election where Curt Schilling led all candidates with support on 71.1 percent of the ballots in his ninth year of eligibility. He missed enshrinement by 16 votes. Schilling made his first appearance on the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee Players ballot this past December where he received support from seven of the 16-member Hall of Fame Board-appointed electorate with 12 affirmative votes needed for election.

Outcome Number Two: Only One Candidate Receives The Required 75 Percent For Enshrinement

If only one candidate receives the required 75 percent for enshrinement this year, it will likely be either Helton or Rolen. In his fifth year of eligibility, Helton could become the thirteenth first baseman elected by the BBWAA and twenty-seventh overall. Based on Jay Jaffe’s Wins Above Replacement Score System (JAWS), the four-time National League Silver Slugger posted a 54.2 JAWS, fifteenth best all-time at first base.

If elected in his sixth year of eligibility, Rolen could become the eighteenth third baseman enshrined in Cooperstown and the ninth elected by the BBWAA. In the 2022 election, Rolen finished fourth in the voting with support on 63.2 percent of the ballots. The eight-time Gold Glove Award winner posted a 56.9 JAWS, tenth best all-time at third base.

If only Helton or Rolen receive the call from Cooperstown, it would mark the second consecutive year the BBWAA elected only one candidate to the Hall of Fame and twenty-eighth time in voting history. David Ortiz was elected in his first year of eligibility last year with support on 77.9 percent of the ballots. Since 2000, the BBWAA have elected only one candidate to the Hall of Fame on six occasions.

Outcome Number Three: Todd Helton And Scott Rolen Receive The Required 75 Percent For Enshrinement

Along with Rolen, Helton could receive the honor of calling himself a Hall of Famer after spending his entire 17-year career with the Colorado Rockies. Voters have been leery of Helton’s candidacy. In the rarified air of Colorado, he posted a .345 batting average over 1,141 ball games at Coors Field in comparison to a .287 batting average over 1,106 road ball games according to Baseball-Reference.

Former teammate Larry Walker’s induction as part of the Class of 2020 in his tenth and final year of eligibility have voters reassessing why they are penalizing candidates for the playing conditions in Colorado. In last year’s election, Helton’s candidacy received support on 52 percent of the ballots. The last time the BBWAA had elected two candidates was the induction class of 2020 which featured Derek Jeter and Larry Walker.

Outcome Number Four: Todd Helton, Scott Rolen, and Billy Wagner Receive The Required 75 Percent For Enshrinement

In his eighth year of eligibility, Wagner could become the fourth pitcher in baseball history to be elected to the Hall of Fame with at least 400 career saves. Diminutive in stature compared to most of his contemporaries, Wagner’s electrifying fastball coming out of his left hand wreaked havoc on hitters over the course of 16 seasons. The role of the closer has been celebrated as evident in the recent BBWAA and Today’s Game Era Committee elections of Mariano Rivera (2019), Lee Smith (2019), and Trevor Hoffman (2018). In last year’s election, Wagner received support on 51 percent of the ballots. The last time the BBWAA had elected three candidates was the induction class of 2017 which featured Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, and Ivan Rodriguez.

Outcome Number Five: Todd Helton, Scott Rolen, Billy Wagner, and Andruw Jones Receive The Required 75 Percent For Enshrinement

Highly unlikely but fun to consider given that a crowded dais on Induction Weekend bodes well for the Cooperstown economy. According to JAWS, Jones ranks eleventh all-time among center fielders with a 54.6 JAWS. In a span of 12 seasons (1996-2007), Jones was the preeminent defensive center fielder in baseball winning 10 Gold Gloves and representing the Atlanta Braves on five occasions at the All Star Game. Jones’ candidacy has been adversely affected by a significant decline in performance over the final five seasons of his major league career while playing for four different ball clubs after his departure from the Braves. The last time the BBWAA had elected four candidates was the induction class of 2019 which featured Roy Halladay, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, and Mariano Rivera.

Managing expectations and playing the long game are critical components to success in the BBWAA Hall of Fame elections for many candidates. Out of the 135 candidates who were elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA, 58 were elected in their first year of eligibility (excluding Roberto Clemente and Lou Gehrig). Out of the 75 candidates who were not elected in their first year of eligibility, 46 confronted at least five years of eligibility before receiving the long awaited call to Cooperstown.

If the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) fail to elect anyone this year, don’t focus on the negative if Todd Helton, Scott Rolen, and Billy Wagner each receive support on at least 70 percent of the ballots. This would be a strong indication that enshrinement is on the horizon for each of them. Another way to view a negative as a positive is if Andruw Jones finishes with support on at least 60 percent of the ballots with four years left of eligibility. Don’t overlook Gary Sheffield! If he can also surpass 60 percent this year, his tenth and final year of eligibility on the ballot will make for many fascinating debates.